Space Exploration Technologies Corp. continued its post-IPO rally on Monday, with shares closing at $192.50 on the Nasdaq, a gain of 19.6% from its opening price. The surge lifted the company's market capitalization to approximately $2.52 trillion, cementing its status as one of the most valuable publicly traded companies.
The stock, which trades under the ticker SPCX, began trading on Friday after SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 per share. The IPO was upsized after underwriters fully exercised the greenshoe option, adding 83.3 million shares and raising total proceeds to $85.7 billion, up from an initial $75 billion. The strong demand was fueled by a limited float and buying from index funds.
Looking ahead, options trading on SpaceX shares is expected to begin on Tuesday, which could add further volatility and liquidity. More significantly, the company is poised for rapid index inclusion. According to Reuters, FTSE Russell is set to add SpaceX on June 26, followed by MSCI on June 29. Inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 is also anticipated. Jefferies estimates that FTSE Russell alone could drive $2.68 billion in passive inflows as index-tracking funds and ETFs adjust their portfolios.
The short-term outlook is dominated by forced buying pressure from index rebalancing, limited share availability, and continued investor enthusiasm for Starlink’s growth and the broader space and broadband themes. John Belton of Gabelli Funds described SpaceX as "the ultimate growth stock."
Despite the rally, valuation concerns are mounting. SpaceX is not yet profitable, reporting $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025 but still burning cash. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens called the stock "significantly overvalued," estimating fair value at just $63 per share, well below Monday’s close. Owens also warned that additional shares could enter the market if private and employee holders sell post-IPO, potentially dragging on the price.
SPCX continues to trade as a high-risk, high-reward play rather than a value investment. The rally has been supported by strong buyer demand, a record capital raise, and anticipated index flows. However, much of the expected growth from Starlink, launch services, Starship, and AI infrastructure is already priced in.
Investors are now turning their attention to Tuesday’s options debut and the index additions scheduled for late June. The next major catalyst will be SpaceX’s first public earnings report, where the focus will shift to revenue growth, cash burn, and Starlink margins rather than further launch updates.
