Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) is poised for significant index-driven buying pressure as the stock heads into Tuesday trading. With the Nasdaq-100 addition slated for July 7 and Russell rebalancing already in motion, combined passive inflows are estimated to exceed $8.3 billion, translating to at least 50.5 million shares at current prices.
Shares closed Monday at $164.19, up 7.15%, after a premarket session that saw the stock at $163.30. Despite the rally, SPCX remains 27.2% below its all-time high of $225.64 and trades 21.6% above its $135 IPO price. The company's market capitalization now stands at roughly $2.16 trillion, making it one of the most valuable publicly traded entities.
Index fund buying is expected to be a major catalyst in the near term. J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM) estimates that SpaceX's entry into the Nasdaq-100 will generate roughly $4.3 billion in passive inflows. Meanwhile, Stephens analyst Melissa Roberts projects that Russell index changes will require another $4.0 billion in purchases. Together, these flows represent about 9.6% of the 527.8 million FTSE Russell shares allocated to the stock, which FTSE classifies as 90.4% growth and 9.6% value.
However, valuation concerns persist. Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) chief equity strategist Michael Field told Reuters that while demand for the stock is high, "we think the stock is overvalued." Morningstar analysts Nicolas Owens and Suryansh Sharma peg SpaceX's fair value at $780 billion, roughly 64% below its current market cap. The stock trades at approximately 107 times estimated 2025 sales, compared to Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) at 21 times.
SpaceX's public debut came on June 12, with the IPO closing June 15 after selling 638.9 million Class A shares, including the full overallotment, for gross proceeds of about $85.7 billion. The company has also entered the public debt markets, pricing $25 billion in senior unsecured notes in a June 23 SEC filing, with coupons ranging from 5.350% due 2031 to 6.650% due 2056. Proceeds will be used to repay a bridge loan, cover fees, and for general corporate purposes.
In a related development, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) announced Monday its acquisition of Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) for $54 per share in cash and stock, valuing Iridium's enterprise at around $8.0 billion. The deal, expected to close in mid-2027, gives Rocket Lab access to Iridium's L-band spectrum, satellite network, and over 2.55 million active users. Rocket Lab shares jumped 15.9% to $98.01, while Iridium rose 25.4% to $54.59. Despite the bump, Rocket Lab's market cap of $59.3 billion remains about 1/36th of SpaceX's.
The next key date for SPCX is July 7, when the Nasdaq-100 addition takes effect before the opening bell. Russell-linked trades have already begun, and Tuesday's session will reveal the extent of remaining buying pressure. With a tight float and massive index demand, the stock's near-term trajectory will be heavily influenced by passive fund flows rather than fundamentals.
