Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) continued their upward trajectory in Friday's premarket, advancing 1.0% to $142.71. This marks a significant 36.1% recovery from the stock's 52-week low of $104.83, though it remains 36.8% below its peak of $225.64.
The spotlight now shifts to the August 20 share unlock event, which will release a substantial block of restricted shares into the market. Investors are keenly watching whether the recent rally can withstand the potential increase in supply. The stock currently trades just 5.7% above its IPO price of $135.00, a narrow cushion that adds to the significance of the upcoming unlock.
In the second quarter, SpaceX reported a net loss of $541 million, an improvement from the $1.01 billion loss in the same period last year. Revenue surged 91.9% year-over-year to $7.81 billion, beating expectations by 14.6%. The operating loss narrowed by 81.8% to $141 million, while EBITDA jumped 232.1% to $2.78 billion. Earnings per share came in at a loss of $0.09, better than the consensus forecast of a $0.21 loss.
The unlock event is expected to make up to 911.5 million restricted shares available for sale as of August 6, with an additional block becoming eligible the following week. However, eligibility does not guarantee that holders will sell. High ownership concentration may mitigate the impact: CEO Elon Musk holds a 48.4% stake, and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) owns 7.2% of shares outstanding, valued at approximately $94.2 billion at the end of the quarter. Together, these two entities control about 55.6% of the company's shares, which could reduce the actual supply entering the market.
Wall Street sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it a Buy, with a consensus price target of $228.59. However, targets range widely from $75 to $800, reflecting significant model risk. Recent notable ratings include Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas with a Buy and $300 target, Clear Street's Brian Dobson with a Buy and $217 target, and Piper Sandler's Alexander Potter with a Hold and $140 target.
CEO Elon Musk has expressed confidence in the company's prospects, stating that the survival probability for significant, long-duration short trades is "very low." This bullish stance, however, does not clarify the potential selling behavior of unlocked shareholders.
Search interest in "spcx stock" has surged, drawing renewed attention to the stock. Investors are closely monitoring whether the price can hold above the $135 IPO mark during the unlock period. A successful defense could reinforce the recovery, while a drop below that level might reopen the path to the post-IPO low.
Risks remain, including the possibility that restricted shares may not all hit the market, which could lessen the supply impact. Conversely, a limited float, wide analyst target dispersion, and ongoing net losses could amplify volatility. Premarket quotes are subject to change before the market opens.
