Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) experienced a 2.57% decline on Wednesday, closing at $139.65, as the market braces for a significant share unlock. The company, which went public in June, saw 72.5 million shares change hands during the session, a volume that pales in comparison to the 319 million shares set to become eligible for trading.
This latest tranche of shares, which becomes available on August 20, represents roughly 4.4 times Wednesday's trading volume, underscoring the potential supply pressure. The unlock is part of the 638.9 million shares offered during the IPO, meaning nearly half of the company's public float is now unrestricted. At Wednesday's closing price, the unlock is valued at approximately $44.6 billion, equivalent to 2.4% of the company's total market capitalization.
While the stock has shown resilience in the face of earlier unlocks, rising 21.5% since August 6, it has slipped 4.5% since Monday's pre-unlock high. The recent trading pattern reflects investor caution ahead of the event, with volume declining from 255.2 million shares on August 6 to 72.5 million on Wednesday, while the stock has pulled back from its August 17 close of $146.23.
Despite the near-term supply concern, SpaceX's fundamentals remain robust. The company reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, driven by strong growth across all segments. Connectivity remains the largest business, generating $4.29 billion (54.9% of total revenue), up 65.8%. AI revenue surged 247.5% to $2.56 billion, while Space revenue grew 29.0% to $962 million.
Capital expenditures reached approximately $18.4 billion in the quarter, about 2.4 times revenue. CFO Bret Johnsen highlighted that recent compute deployments achieved a payback period of less than one year, a key justification for the company's premium valuation. At $1.84 trillion market cap, SpaceX trades at roughly 41 times projected 2026 revenue of $44.75 billion, a multiple that has drawn criticism from some analysts.
NYU professor Scott Galloway has described the stock as “still crazy overvalued,” suggesting a fair value between $10 and $30 per share. However, Wall Street remains largely optimistic. Analyst price targets range from $75 to $300, with a consensus rating of Buy and an average target of $222.73, implying 59.5% upside from current levels. Notable bullish calls include Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas ($300), Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu ($235), and Clear Street's Brian Dobson ($217). The lone bear, Phillip Securities' Glenn Thum, has a Sell rating with a $75 target.
The upcoming unlock is a test of market absorption. If trading volume remains subdued and the stock continues to decline, it could signal that supply is outpacing demand. Conversely, if the stock stabilizes or rallies on increased turnover, it would indicate strong buyer interest. Key demand drivers include Starlink expansion, new AI partnerships, and progress on Starship milestones. On the downside, heavy capital expenditures, insider selling, and project delays could weigh on sentiment.
SpaceX's journey since its June IPO has been volatile. After pricing at $135, the stock surged to a high of $225.64 before retreating. It currently trades 3.4% above the IPO price but 38.1% below its peak. The company's valuation has been a subject of intense debate, with bulls pointing to rapid revenue growth and bears citing lofty multiples.
As the market opens on Thursday, all eyes will be on how the 319 million shares are absorbed. The outcome will provide valuable insight into the sustainability of SpaceX's valuation and the appetite for its stock among institutional and retail investors alike.
