Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) closed Friday at $133.11, up 15.9%, capping a week that saw the stock gain 23%. The surge came as investor attention moved away from the recent expiration of the initial lockup period and toward the company's aggressive AI infrastructure investments.
The rally was notable given that 911.5 million shares became eligible for sale on Thursday. Friday's trading volume reached 242.1 million shares, representing 26.6% of that newly unlocked pool. However, analysts caution that this figure reflects both existing public shares and repeated trades, and does not necessarily indicate insider selling.
The eligible block carried a notional value of approximately $121.3 billion, yet the share price rose despite the potential for additional supply. Investors are now focusing on the company's capital returns and its pivot toward AI-driven growth.
AI Capex Dominates
SpaceX's second-quarter results revealed that AI accounted for 86% of total capital expenditure. The company's AI segment generated $2.56 billion in revenue but posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion. Total capital outlay for the quarter reached $18.37 billion, more than five times the company's adjusted EBITDA of $3.54 billion.
The announcement of the new Terafab chip facility marks an additional major investment. SpaceX and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) revealed a first-phase joint investment totaling $16.8 billion for their Texas Terafab facility, with the breakdown between the two companies undisclosed. CEO Elon Musk stated that Terafab will support chips intended "for use on Earth and in space."
The company's connectivity segment remains the primary profit driver, contributing $4.29 billion in revenue and $1.66 billion in operating income. Space segment revenue was $962 million, with an operating loss of $542 million. Overall, SpaceX posted a 92% year-over-year increase in revenue to $7.81 billion, though it recorded a net loss of $541 million.
Analyst Reactions
Friday's primary spark came from Argus, which upgraded SpaceX to Buy with a price target of $160, following management's forecast of swift returns from recent AI-compute investments. Other analysts have varied targets: Bernstein raised its target to $248 (Outperform), Deutsche Bank lowered to $235 (Buy), Morgan Stanley reaffirmed Overweight with a $300 target, and Piper Sandler reduced its target to $140 (Neutral).
According to FactSet data, 35 analysts maintain a Buy rating with an average price target of $231.40. Thomas Monteiro, an analyst at Investing.com, commented that the results indicated "the machine underneath the story actually works," though he noted the scale of investment relative to earnings.
Market Context
The rally also lifted other space-related stocks. Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ:RKLB) gained 9.5% to $82.83, Redwire Corp. (NYSE:RDW) rose 14.8% to $13.59, and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) advanced 6.9% to $71.94.
Looking ahead, SpaceX has scheduled tentative Starlink launches for August 10 and August 11, which are expected to deploy 29 and 24 satellites, respectively. A more significant milestone is tentatively planned for late August, with Starship Flight 14 potentially releasing V3 Starlink satellites and attempting the first tower catch of an upper stage, pending regulatory approval.
Risks Remain
Additional lockup expirations through December could increase the tradable float. Capital expenditure may remain near second-quarter levels, and Starship progress hinges on regulatory approval and test success. Delays in AI monetization, increased insider selling, or a failed launch could undo Friday's gains.
SpaceX's available liquidity, including cash, equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $100 billion, provides flexibility but does not assure strong returns. Most analysts maintain a positive outlook, though price targets vary widely due to differing views on AI economics and the potential impact of future share sales.
