Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) delivered a stunning reversal on Friday, closing the trading week at $133.11, a 15.8% jump from the prior session. The surge came amid a significant expansion in the company's tradable share pool, which grew by 142.6% following the expiration of the initial post-IPO lockup period.
According to SpaceX Investor Relations, approximately 911.5 million shares were unlocked for trading on August 6, joining the roughly 639 million shares already available from the IPO. This brought the total eligible share pool to about 1.55 billion, a 142.6% increase. Friday's volume of 242.1 million shares indicates that buyers absorbed the initial wave of new supply, driving the stock to its highest close since before the earnings report.
Four-Day Volatility and Recovery
The stock experienced a turbulent week. After closing at $125.33 on Monday, shares fell 13.6% on Tuesday following the Q2 earnings release, hitting a record low of $108.27 on Wednesday. However, the stock rebounded strongly on Thursday and Friday, gaining 6.1% and 15.8% respectively, to finish the week 6.2% above the pre-earnings close and 22.9% above the record low.
This rapid turnaround is notable given the larger float, suggesting that institutional and retail investors alike view the current valuation as attractive despite the share supply increase.
Q2 Financial Highlights
SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, a 91.9% increase from $4.07 billion in the same period last year. The operating loss narrowed significantly to $143 million from $970 million, while the net loss decreased to $541 million from $1.01 billion. Adjusted EBITDA soared 191% to $3.5 billion, up from $1.2 billion a year ago.
CFO Bret Johnsen described the quarter as demonstrating the "true power of SpaceX," highlighting the company's ability to scale revenue while improving profitability. However, capital expenditures on AI-related projects reached $15.83 billion, a 21-fold increase from $749 million last year, more than double the quarterly revenue.
Segment Performance
Connectivity remained the largest division, generating $4.29 billion in revenue, up 65.8% year-over-year. The AI segment was the fastest-growing, with revenue surging 247.5% to $2.56 billion, though it still reported an operating loss of $1.26 billion. Space revenue grew 29.0% to $962 million.
The heavy investment in AI infrastructure is a double-edged sword: while it drives growth, it also pressures cash flow. Analysts are divided on whether the company can sustain this level of capital expenditure without diluting shareholder value further.
Analyst Divergence
Wall Street remains split on SpaceX's prospects. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $300 price target on July 24, while RBC Capital initiated coverage with a Buy and $225 target on July 7. MoffettNathanson rates the stock a Hold with a $131 target, and CFRA has a Sell rating with a $115 target, initiated on June 12.
The wide range of price targets reflects uncertainty about the company's AI spending and the potential for further dilution from upcoming lockup expirations. Restrictions in place until December 8 could increase freely tradable shares to 40% of the company, adding more supply to the market.
Market Implications
Friday's close above $133.11 is a positive signal, but the supply challenge is not over. If selling pressure resumes during subsequent unlock periods, the absorption thesis could be tested. Investors will be watching whether the stock can hold above Thursday's close of $114.92 to confirm the two-day rebound.
For now, SpaceX has demonstrated resilience in the face of a significantly larger float, but the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain. The company's heavy AI investments and the looming supply overhang are key risks to monitor in the coming months.
