SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) closed the trading week at $108.37 on Friday, marking a 5.8% decline and its lowest closing price since the company's public debut in June. The stock has now fallen 19.7% from its initial public offering price of $135 and sits 52% below its all-time high of $225.64. The recent slide comes as investors brace for the company's first quarterly earnings report as a public entity, scheduled for Tuesday after market close.
The market's caution is not without cause. While SpaceX continues to secure significant government contracts and maintain a rapid launch cadence, the sheer scale of its valuation—$1.43 trillion—demands more than operational milestones. The latest $1.6 billion order from the U.S. Space Force for 18 Falcon 9 launches, valued at approximately $88.9 million per mission, represents just 0.11% of the company's market capitalization. This disparity underscores the challenge: even substantial contract wins have a limited impact on a company valued in the trillions.
Investors are also preparing for a potential supply overhang. Beginning Thursday, up to 911.5 million shares will become eligible for sale, representing a value of roughly $98.8 billion based on Friday's closing price. This unlock is 64% larger than the IPO's base offering of 555.6 million shares. While eligibility does not guarantee that all holders will sell, the sheer volume could exert downward pressure on the stock in the near term.
Despite the stock's struggles, SpaceX's operations remain robust. On Friday, a Falcon 9 rocket successfully deployed 24 satellites into orbit, marking the booster's 26th flight and another landing. This brings the company's total orbital-booster landings to 643. The company is averaging a launch every 2.4 days, with 90 Falcon missions completed through July 31, of which 69 were Starlink deployments—accounting for 76.7% of all flights. There are now over 10,800 Starlink satellites in orbit.
The Space Force contract, which covers missions through 2027, was described by acquisition official Eric Zarybnisky as an "unprecedented two-month acquisition timeline." SpaceX has secured at least $7 billion in Pentagon deals so far this year, highlighting its importance as a defense partner. However, the market's muted reaction to these wins suggests that investors are more focused on the company's ability to translate its launch prowess into sustainable profits.
Looking ahead, the upcoming earnings report will be a critical test. Visible Alpha consensus projects second-quarter revenue of $6.9 billion, with the Connectivity segment expected to post an operating margin of 35.9%. First-quarter results showed Connectivity revenue of $3.26 billion and operating income of $1.19 billion, a 36.5% margin. The earnings per share forecast ranges from a loss of $1.26 to a gain of $0.33, reflecting uncertainty around spending on AI and Starship development. Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected at $48.7 billion.
Options pricing suggests an anticipated swing of 14% to 15% around the earnings release. A disappointing result, reduced Starlink margins, or increased AI-related costs could drive further declines. Additionally, the share unlock looms as a potential catalyst for volatility.
SpaceX's long-term narrative hinges on Starship, which is viewed as critical to reducing costs and enabling ambitious missions. The 13th test flight carried 20 Starlink V3 satellites and showed improved heat-shield performance, though five booster engines failed to reignite during descent. The company has also scheduled a Falcon 9 Starlink launch for Tuesday, providing investors with another operational data point ahead of earnings.
For now, the market's focus is squarely on financials rather than technical achievements. SpaceX has proven it can launch at scale, but the question remains whether Starlink's earnings can support the company's massive valuation and its ambitions in AI and Starship. The next few days will likely provide some answers.