Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is set to release its first-quarter financial results after the U.S. market closes on Tuesday, with options markets pricing in a potential 8.07% swing in the stock price. The company, known for its massive bitcoin treasury, paused its weekly bitcoin purchases ahead of the report, adding a layer of uncertainty to the earnings narrative.
Shares of Strategy rose to $177.17 in Monday morning trading, up from the prior close, as investors prepared for the quarterly update. The stock remains well below its levels from a year ago, despite riding a recent bitcoin rally. Bitcoin itself hovered around $78,900 on Monday.
Bitcoin Holdings and Capital Strategy
The company disclosed that it sold 1,451,601 Class A shares through an at-the-market offering program between April 20 and 26, raising $255 million in net proceeds. Those funds were used to acquire 3,273 bitcoin at an average price of $77,906 per coin. As of April 26, Strategy's total bitcoin holdings stood at 818,334 tokens, acquired for approximately $61.81 billion, or an average of $75,537 per bitcoin.
Executive Chairman Michael Saylor signaled a pause in the buying spree, posting on X: "No buys this week. Back to work next week." The message came just after the April 27 filing detailing the $255 million purchase, turning what is typically a routine weekly buy into a question mark for earnings week.
Analyst Outlook and Price Target
Randy Binner, an analyst at Texas Capital Securities, raised his price target on Strategy to $225 from $200, maintaining a Buy rating. Binner's updated model reflects a mNAV (market value to net asset value) of 1.25 times, up from his previous 1.19 times. He also increased his 2026 capital issuance forecast to $20 billion, up from $17 billion, citing the $11 billion already raised this year. Binner continues to assume a 10% to 12% average annual bitcoin appreciation rate.
Regarding the CLARITY Act, a crypto market-structure bill, Binner noted that while the chances for passage have diminished, "there is still time" for it to advance in Congress.
Options Market and Peer Performance
The implied 8.07% move from options pricing is smaller than the 11% average absolute change Strategy has experienced over the previous four quarters, according to data from TipRanks. The implied move reflects trader expectations for how much the stock could shift after the earnings release.
Peer stocks in the crypto-exposed space also showed strength on Monday. Coinbase and Robinhood both climbed in premarket trading, buoyed by bitcoin's move past $80,000. Strategy's performance is part of a broader lift across crypto-exposed equities, not an isolated event.
Risks and Concerns
However, the risk cuts both ways. If bitcoin falters or market momentum wanes, Strategy could face difficult decisions regarding further bitcoin purchases, additional share issuance, or protecting current investors from dilution. TipRanks' AI analyst maintains a Neutral rating on MSTR, citing soft financials, negative cash flow, and the leveraged swings inherent in the stock.
The company continues to operate its enterprise analytics software business alongside its bitcoin treasury strategy. Strategy plans to hold a video webinar at 5 p.m. Eastern on May 5 to discuss the first-quarter results.
