Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) closed Friday at $242.44, little changed from the prior session, but capping a week that saw shares climb roughly 10% amid a surge of speculation around Grand Theft Auto VI pre-orders. The stock had jumped 6.79% on Thursday after a leaked email from a Best Buy affiliate marketing partner suggested a physical pre-order window for the highly anticipated title could open between May 18 and May 21—coinciding with the company's upcoming earnings report.
The rally comes as broader markets struggled, with the S&P 500 slipping 1.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite losing 1.5% on Friday. Take-Two managed to hold its gains, while rivals such as Electronic Arts (EA) edged slightly lower and Roblox (RBLX) fell about 2%.
Earnings Call in Focus
Take-Two is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2026 results after the market close on Thursday, May 21, followed by a conference call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. The earnings release is seen as a pivotal moment for investors to gauge whether Grand Theft Auto VI remains on track for its scheduled Nov. 19 release date.
Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese, in a note cited by MT Newswires, emphasized that the earnings call is what truly matters. “This is the moment investors will know whether GTA VI is still on track for its Nov. 19 release,” Reese wrote. She indicated that if management reaffirms the date during the call, Wedbush would raise its probability for a November launch to above 90%, up from 75%.
Wedbush maintained its outperform rating and a $300 price target for Take-Two over the next 12 months. The firm estimates the company’s fourth-quarter net bookings at $1.56 billion, which aligns with the upper end of Take-Two’s own guidance. Net bookings represent the total value of games, services, and other digital and physical items sold during the period.
Market Expectations and Risks
Options markets are pricing in a significant move. Data from Bloomberg, cited by Investing.com, shows an implied move of 9.4% around next week’s earnings report, reflecting the high stakes for the company.
Despite the excitement, there are clear risks. The leaked retailer email is not an official pre-order plan, and Wedbush noted that the timeline could still shift. If Take-Two’s fiscal 2027 guidance proves cautious, if management provides less detail on pre-orders than anticipated, or if there are hints of another delay, the week’s gains could evaporate quickly.
Take-Two has not officially commented on the pre-order speculation. The company previously stated in November that it expects record net bookings in fiscal 2027, the period when GTA VI is slated to launch.
As markets reopen Monday, traders will have the first opportunity to react to any weekend developments. Thursday’s conference call will be the key moment for management to bridge the gap between rumor and reality—or risk letting the market decide for them.
