NEW YORK, July 2, 2026 – Nasdaq 100 futures are trailing broader market indices early Thursday as weakness in semiconductor stocks weighs on technology shares. At 5:48 a.m. EDT, Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.35%, while Dow futures edged up 0.04% and Russell 2000 futures gained 0.06%, reflecting a mixed start for U.S. equities.
The divergence highlights ongoing pressure on the tech sector, particularly chipmakers, which have experienced a sharp sell-off. The Philadelphia semiconductor index plunged 6.3% on Wednesday, eroding some of the substantial gains made during the second quarter, when it surged 87%. This weakness extended to Asian markets, with South Korea's KOSPI sliding 7.8% on Thursday, dragged down by heavy losses in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, which fell 14% and 9%, respectively.
Jobs Report in Focus
All eyes are on the June employment report due at 8:30 a.m. ET, which could influence the Federal Reserve's policy path. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 110,000, down from 172,000 in May. Forecasts range widely from 25,000 to 200,000, raising the potential for volatile market reactions. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3% for the fourth consecutive month.
JPMorgan's trading desk has outlined scenarios for the payrolls data. They assign a 40% probability to a gain of 100,000 to 130,000 jobs, which could lift the S&P 500 by 0.5% to 1%. A weaker print of 70,000 to 100,000 jobs, with a 25% probability, might drag the index down 0.5% to 1.25%. A reading below 70,000 jobs, with a 5% chance, could trigger a decline of 1.25% to 2%.
Market Context and Analyst Views
Goldman Sachs economists note that World Cup hiring could boost June payrolls by around 40,000, primarily in leisure and hospitality, retail, and transportation, with a subsequent pullback expected. Dan North of Allianz Trade Americas described the labor market as stuck in a "no hire, no fire" phase, while James Knightley of ING warned that the string of strong jobs numbers "could come to an end at any point."
The Federal Reserve held its target rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on June 17, reiterating that inflation remains above its 2% target. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized on Wednesday that there will be no easing of policy soon, stating that those expecting relief will be "disappoint[ed]."
Individual Stock Movers
In premarket trading, SanDisk (SNDK) fell 2.6%, Arm Holdings (ARM) slipped 2.1%, and Bending Spoons (BSP) dropped 3.1% after surging 40% in its Nasdaq debut. Meta Platforms (META) was in the news again as reports emerged that it is building a cloud division to offer its surplus AI compute capacity. This weighed on shares of CoreWeave (CRWV), which sank 10.8%, and Nebius (NBIS), which fell 12.4%, on concerns that Meta may reduce spending with external AI cloud providers.
U.S. markets will close early on Thursday and remain shut on Friday, July 3, for the Independence Day holiday. Traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of the long weekend, with the next major catalyst being the June CPI report due July 14.
