Affirm Holdings (AFRM) saw its stock jump 9.9% to $78.95 on Wednesday morning, as traders reacted to stronger-than-expected spending data from the first day of Amazon Prime Day. The surge provided an early real-time test of buy now, pay later (BNPL) demand, with consumers increasingly opting to split payments on larger purchases.
According to Adobe Analytics, U.S. online shoppers spent $8.3 billion on Tuesday, the first day of the four-day event, marking a 5.3% increase from last year and surpassing Adobe's own forecasts. The total represents the biggest single day for U.S. e-commerce in 2026 so far. Amazon shifted Prime Day to June this year, running from June 23 to June 26 across more than 35 categories.
Affirm's stock opened at $72.90 and traded as high as $79.88, with approximately 2.8 million shares changing hands by midday. The company's performance is closely tied to the event, as Amazon offers shoppers the option to use Pay Over Time with Affirm on purchases above $50. This gives investors a direct window into how consumers are using installment credit for big-ticket items amid ongoing budget pressures.
EMarketer, using Adobe data, estimates that BNPL will account for $2.04 billion in Prime Day spending, a 5.5% increase from last year and representing 7.8% of total sales. This share is critical for Affirm, which competes with Block's Afterpay, PayPal, and Klarna in the U.S. installment-credit space. Federal Reserve economists reported that U.S. BNPL players handled about $156.7 billion in credit in 2025, with Affirm accounting for $41.3 billion and Afterpay $53.7 billion.
Affirm's latest quarterly results provided a strong foundation for the Prime Day trade. In the fiscal third quarter ending March 31, gross merchandise volume reached $11.6 billion, up 35% year-over-year. Revenue hit $1.039 billion, also up 33%, while net income came in at $103 million. The company reported 26.8 million active consumers and 515,000 active merchants.
Funding remains a key focus. On June 4, Affirm announced that CPP Investments renewed and increased a 24-month forward-flow agreement, committing $1.7 billion for Affirm installment loans, with the option to expand to $2.2 billion. Affirm operating chief Michael Linford described CPP as 'one of our most valued capital partners.'
However, risks remain. If Prime Day demand slows after day one, or if shoppers stick to lower-priced essentials, Affirm's stock could lose momentum. Credit quality is also under scrutiny: Affirm reported that 30-day-plus delinquencies, excluding Peloton and Pay in X loans, hit 2.8% in the March quarter. Its allowance for credit losses increased to 6.0% of loans held for investment. The company noted in its latest filing that collections depend on economic and market conditions.
Mixed signals from consumers add caution. William Stern, CEO of small-business lender Cardiff, told Reuters ahead of Prime Day that budgets are tight: 'People just don't have the cash right now.' EMarketer analyst Sky Canaves added that shoppers remain careful, watching for sales and timing their purchases.
Adobe maintains its $26.3 billion spending forecast for the entire four-day event. Amazon Prime VP Jamil Ghani called it the company's 'biggest shopping event of the year' for Prime members. For Affirm, the early data provides a bullish signal, but the rest of the event will determine whether the momentum holds.
