The U.S. regular trading session ended Monday with Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:ACHR) maintaining an estimated post-launch equity increase of approximately $390 million. Shares closed at $4.95, up 3.8% on the day.
The gain, while notable, remains well below the initial surge seen when Archer first traded publicly. On July 20, the stock jumped 19.6%, but subsequently declined through the end of last week. By Friday, investors had given back 62% of the first-day dollar gain. Monday's recovery reduced that pullback to 41%.
Over the past week, Archer shares rose 7.4%, and they are now 11.5% higher than the closing level on July 17. The calculation is based on Archer's most recently disclosed 759.6 million shares outstanding, meaning the $387 million rise equates to roughly 2.6 times the company's first-quarter operating cash burn.
Trading activity has cooled significantly. Monday saw 29.9 million shares exchange hands, less than a third of the volume recorded on July 20.
During this period, Archer has outperformed its nearest publicly traded eVTOL competitors. Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) closed at $7.37 on Monday, up just 1.9% from its July 17 close of $7.23. Vertical Aerospace Ltd. (NYSE:EVTL) fell 4.1% over the same period, closing at $1.42 compared to $1.48 on July 17. This spread suggests targeted buying in Archer rather than a broad sector recovery.
The recent catalyst for Archer's momentum was the unveiling of Thunder, an autonomous hybrid-electric aircraft developed in partnership with Anduril Industries. The inaugural flight is scheduled for 2027. Additionally, Archer announced Halo, a commercial model built on the same platform. While the announcement included details of research and use-case development, it did not specify any confirmed order value.
Chief Executive Adam Goldstein stated that the partners developed "a very specific aircraft for that need," positioning Thunder as a defense offering designed for a particular purpose. H.C. Wainwright analyst Amit Dayal said he was "impressed by the product design and expected technology capabilities," but noted that customers, pricing, and order size remain key outstanding details.
Archer announced on Monday that it plans to release its second-quarter results after the market close on August 10. The company will begin its webcast at 2 p.m. Pacific. Archer expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of between $170 million and $200 million for Q2, according to its initial estimate. Liquidity as of March was $1.776 billion.
Traders will continue to evaluate the launch premium throughout the remainder of the week. The company's next official update is set for August 10. Risks remain elevated: Halo deals are subject to conditions, and Thunder's inaugural flight is still planned for 2027. Accelerated cash burn or dilution could eliminate the current premium. Investors have purchased optionality, and the August update will need to demonstrate if contracts can uphold it.
