Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE: ACHR) closed Friday with a 6.7% gain, bringing its weekly advance to 20.3% as investors positioned for the company's second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after the market closes on Monday. The stock settled at $5.58, reflecting growing optimism about the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) developer's progress.
Wall Street anticipates Q2 revenue of approximately $2 million, with earnings per share estimates ranging from a loss of $0.25 to $0.34. These figures underscore the company's early-stage revenue profile, even as it ramps up certification efforts and production capabilities.
Archer's financial runway remains a focal point. As of the end of Q1, the company held $1.7759 billion in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments. Operating cash consumption totaled $149.1 million, with an additional $32.6 million directed toward property and equipment acquisitions. Combined spending of $181.7 million represented 10.2% of liquid holdings, equating to roughly 9.8 quarters, or approximately 2.4 years, of coverage at that run-rate. Management cautions that this is not a forward-looking projection, as revenue, working capital, and financing activities could materially alter the trajectory.
Losses are widening. Adjusted EBITDA loss in Q1 surged 58% year-over-year to $172.5 million. For Q2, the company forecasts an adjusted EBITDA loss in the range of $170 million to $200 million, with a midpoint of $185 million—7% higher than Q1. GAAP net loss in Q1 was $217.7 million, up from $93.4 million a year earlier.
This week, Archer provided new operational updates. Its piloted Midnight aircraft completed a round-trip flight between Salinas and Monterey, covering the route in about nine minutes each way, compared to a minimum of 35 minutes by road. CEO Adam Goldstein described it as "exactly the kind of route we plan to fly." The company is preparing for federal pilot-program operations later this year.
Additionally, Archer's ZEE model, which forecasts airport-surface trajectories several minutes in advance, has begun trials at Hawthorne Airport. Mario Srouji, AI products chief, called the output a "window into the future." The company continues to pursue broader pilot testing.
The broader eVTOL sector is also gaining momentum. Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) rose 20.8% over the week, following its Q2 revenue report of $38.6 million, largely derived from a newly acquired passenger service operating traditional aircraft. Joby shares closed Friday at $8.64, up 4.9%.
Analyst sentiment on Archer is mixed. Recent ratings include a Hold from Goldman Sachs (target $8), a Buy from H.C. Wainwright (target $18), and Buys from Canaccord Genuity and Needham with targets of $12 and $9, respectively. Targets imply potential upside ranging from 43% to 223% from Friday's close.
Risks remain elevated. FAA delays, slower-than-expected pilot rollouts, or increased cash burn could compress the runway. Equity funding may lead to dilution. The ZEE model's claims require broader verification. Investors will focus on Monday's webcast at 5 p.m. EDT, paying close attention to liquidity, operating cash consumption, and any updates to the Q3 spending outlook. Certification progress and manufacturing milestones are likely to be more critical than minor revenue surprises.
