AMSTERDAM, June 20, 2026 – Shares of ASML Holding NV (ASML) declined as much as 2.7% on Friday following reports that U.S. officials suspect one of its advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines may have reached China, a claim the Dutch chip-equipment maker strongly denies. The incident underscores mounting political risks that could threaten up to 20% of ASML’s projected 2026 revenue if broader export controls are imposed.
Bloomberg reported that U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick raised the issue with senior ASML executives, suggesting that one of the company’s most sophisticated chipmaking tools might already be operating in China. ASML responded by stating it has never shipped an EUV machine or any components specifically designed for EUV systems to the country. The company even published a document titled “No indication of any ASML EUV System in China,” listing 314 EUV machines globally, 26 scrapped, and none in China.
The timing is critical because U.S. export restrictions rely heavily on cooperation from allied nations. ASML is headquartered in the Netherlands, and Tokyo Electron is based in Japan, while American firms such as Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA Corporation (KLAC) also produce advanced chipmaking tools. Washington has long argued that divergent national rules allow China to exploit loopholes, and this latest suspicion could pressure allies to tighten controls further.
Despite ASML’s assurances, the uncertainty has weighed on investor sentiment. The company emphasized that its EUV machines are massive—top-end models are the size of a school bus and weigh 180 tons—making them difficult to move or conceal without ASML’s knowledge. The machines also require regular maintenance, which ASML says it would be aware of. However, Bloomberg noted that the Commerce Department has not provided evidence of an EUV system in China, leaving the allegation unsubstantiated.
The broader implications for the semiconductor industry are significant. China remains barred from acquiring EUV tools, which are essential for producing cutting-edge chips used in AI processors from Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL). Any breach would not only violate trade rules but also threaten global supply chains. Meanwhile, Chinese firms like Huawei Technologies (HUAWY) have been working to develop their own advanced chipmaking capabilities, but progress is constrained by restricted access to key equipment.
Political risks are escalating. A bipartisan bill in the U.S. Congress aims to pressure allies to align more closely with American export controls, potentially blocking shipments of ASML’s immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools to China. These systems, while less advanced than EUV, are still critical for Chinese semiconductor fabs. ASML has projected that China could account for about 20% of its 2026 revenue, meaning any expansion of controls would hit the company harder than the existing EUV restrictions.
Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence, including Masahiro Wakasugi, suggest the impact on ASML’s sales may be limited, as the company has not shipped EUV systems to China and producing advanced chips would require other highly restricted foreign equipment. Nevertheless, the persistent geopolitical tensions highlight the fragile balance between global commerce and national security.
As the U.S. seeks to turn suspicion into proof, ASML must continue selling where permissible while demonstrating that tracking, service limits, and machine monitoring are effective. The standoff leaves the world’s sole supplier of EUV lithography systems in a precarious position, caught between the demands of its customers and the pressures of geopolitics.
