Bitcoin held near the $64,100 mark on Sunday as fresh U.S. military strikes targeted Iranian missile and air-defense systems, along with boats near the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. maintained that the critical waterway remained open, while Iran claimed it was closed. Cryptocurrency markets, which trade continuously, reacted first as investors monitored the situation for signs of further escalation.
The real test begins this week as traditional markets—crude oil, equities, and government bonds—reopen after the weekend closure. Bitcoin was one of the few major assets available for trading during the conflict's development. Ether posted a modest 2% gain over the week, while Solana dropped 5%, reflecting selective rather than broad risk appetite.
ETF Flows and Corporate Sales
Fund flows offered limited relief. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $197.4 million in net inflows for the week ending July 10, their first weekly positive since early May. However, this only recoups 2.4% of the $8.26 billion withdrawn in the prior eight weeks. The rebound was concentrated, with Monday alone bringing in $265.69 million—more than the entire week's total. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) accounted for $86.83 million, nearly all of Friday's $90.44 million inflow. Trading volumes were the weakest for any full five-day stretch since October 2024.
Meanwhile, corporate sales are adding supply. Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) sold 3,588 bitcoin for $216 million between June 29 and July 5, citing the need to fund distributions on preferred shares and replenish reserves. Empery Digital (NASDAQ:EMPD) disclosed it sold 1,400 bitcoin since May 7 for $87.1 million, using proceeds to cover debt, acquire property, pay legal expenses, and fund operations. Together, these two companies reported $303.1 million in bitcoin sales, exceeding the week's ETF inflow by $105.7 million.
Tech Funds Outpace Crypto
The disparity in investor demand is stark. U.S. technology-sector funds attracted $9.71 billion in the week through July 8—roughly 49 times what bitcoin ETFs took in. This reflects sustained interest in artificial intelligence and related earnings growth, highlighting crypto's ongoing struggle to compete for fresh capital.
Macro Events Ahead
This week's packed macro calendar could shift sentiment. Tuesday brings June consumer inflation data, with a Wall Street Journal poll forecasting headline CPI slowing to 3.8% from 4.2%, and core CPI easing to 2.8% from 2.9%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House on Tuesday and the Senate on Wednesday, alongside producer prices and the Fed's Beige Book. Thursday's June retail sales will test consumer resilience.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently warned that "inflation has been taking off," putting added focus on Tuesday's data ahead of the July 28–29 meeting. Treasury yields finished higher last week, pressuring bitcoin, which pays no income and often suffers when bond yields rise.
Market Outlook
Vikram Subburaj, CEO at Giottus, cautioned that the bounce from recent lows does not yet signal a clear bullish reversal. He advised traders to avoid aggressive positions until bitcoin clears $67,000 and ETF demand strengthens. However, that cautious view could quickly change if inflation comes in lower, crude prices stabilize, and fund flows accelerate. The risk is that shipping disruptions, rising oil and yields, or hot CPI data revive rate-hike fears, potentially driving bitcoin back toward $60,000.
Breadth, not just price, will be the key signal. A move above $65,000 with inflows across multiple ETFs would indicate stronger demand. If BlackRock's product continues to lead alone while listed holders sell into the move, the bounce remains fragile.
