Bitcoin (BTC) edged lower to approximately $59,500 in late Thursday trading in New York, extending recent losses as the cryptocurrency tested support near the high-$50,000s. The digital asset fell 1.9% to $59,498, after briefly touching an intraday low of $58,189, according to market data. The decline comes as investors focus on a significant outflow from U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has raised questions about institutional demand and near-term price direction.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT) ended the session down 1.1% at $33.52, while Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, saw its shares plunge 9.3% to $85.33. Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN), a key crypto exchange, also fell 5.1% to $142.52. The moves underscore the broader market's sensitivity to ETF flows and bitcoin's price action.
Data from Farside Investors shows that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $469 million in net outflows on June 24, a substantial single-day withdrawal. BlackRock's IBIT led the losses with $239.3 million in outflows, followed by Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (BATS:FBTC) at $120.8 million. ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (BATS:ARKB) shed $50.7 million, and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (NYSEARCA:GBTC) lost $54.3 million, partially offset by a $23.6 million inflow to the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (NYSEARCA:BTC). Combined, IBIT and FBTC accounted for roughly 77% of the day's total outflows.
Analysts note that the concentration of outflows in funds typically associated with institutional and advisory accounts signals a shift in sentiment. Citi Research highlighted earlier this month that spot bitcoin ETF flows explain approximately 45% of weekly BTC return variation, making them a critical gauge of investor adoption. The June 24 outflow alone represented 39% of the $1.20 billion pulled from spot bitcoin ETFs between June 8 and June 24, suggesting that a single day of redemptions accounted for nearly two-fifths of the recent pullback.
On-chain data from Glassnode, shared by CoinDesk, shows that 10.83 million BTC are now sitting at a loss after bitcoin dipped below $59,100 on Wednesday, a record high for coins in the red. Long-term holders still control about 14.8 million BTC, also a record, with roughly 37% of those positions underwater. Despite the losses, there has been no mass selloff, indicating that many holders remain reluctant to capitulate.
The options market adds another layer of complexity. Deribit is set to expire $10.2 billion in bitcoin options on Friday, with the "max pain" point—the price at which the most options expire worthless—around $72,000, well above current spot levels. "Recent option expiries haven't really mechanically pinned down prices," Jasper De Maere, OTC trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk. Meanwhile, short bets may still be crowded: CoinGlass data shows 6,900 BTC worth about $409 million in buy orders stacked from current prices down to $50,000, compared to only 1,570 BTC—or about $93 million—in sell orders between here and $70,000.
Strategy Inc remains a focal point for equity investors. A June 22 SEC filing revealed that the company sold 2,714,839 common shares, raising $335.5 million in net proceeds. It subsequently purchased 520 BTC for $34.9 million, bringing its total holdings to 847,363 BTC at an average price of $75,651. The company also listed a $1.4 billion U.S. dollar reserve. Two Prime CEO Alexander Blume commented that Strategy's main challenge is trust, not short-term solvency, noting that shifting plans have hurt retail confidence in MSTR and its preferred shares.
Looking ahead, market participants remain divided. Hyperion Decimus co-founder and portfolio manager Chris Sullivan sees on-chain data as bullish but incomplete. "We have literally every box checked, except for a final pattern," he told CoinDesk, suggesting bitcoin may need to rally back to $82,000 or drop further to between $54,000 and $57,000 before establishing a clear trend. With ETF outflows, options expiry, and key support levels under pressure, the coming days are likely to be pivotal for bitcoin and related assets.
