Coeur Mining (CDE) shares declined sharply Wednesday, falling 5.1% to close at $15.47, as a broad selloff in precious metals cast doubt on the company's ambitious 2026 cash flow projections. The stock touched a session low of $15.15 on heavy volume of approximately 41.7 million shares.
The decline came as spot gold dropped 3.3% to $3,973.79 per ounce, while spot silver tumbled 9.1% to $56.41. These prices are significantly below the assumptions underlying Coeur's 2026 outlook, which used gold at $4,550 per ounce and silver at $77.50 per ounce. That leaves gold about 13% below the guidance price and silver roughly 27% lower.
Just a day earlier, at its J.P. Morgan Natural Resources Conference presentation, Coeur unveiled targets of more than $3 billion in EBITDA and $2 billion in free cash flow for 2026. The company's slide deck displayed a market capitalization of $19.4 billion based on a June 16 closing price of $18.79. However, with Wednesday's close at $15.47, the market cap now stands around $16.0 billion, roughly $3.4 billion below that figure.
The stock now trades below all analyst price targets shown in the company's presentation. Cantor Fitzgerald's Hold-rated target of $19 is the lowest, meaning shares are approximately 19% below that level. CIBC Capital Markets has a $40 target on the stock.
Coeur's recent inclusion in the S&P MidCap 400, effective June 22, did little to support the stock. The SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF gained 0.6% on the day, but Coeur underperformed its peers, falling more than Pan American Silver (down about 4.0%), Hecla Mining (off roughly 3.7%), and the Global X Silver Miners ETF (also down 3.7%).
The company's heavy exposure to silver, which accounted for 42% of first-quarter revenue, makes it particularly sensitive to precious metal price swings. Coeur's 2026 production guidance calls for 680,000 to 815,000 ounces of gold, 18.68 million to 21.93 million ounces of silver, and 50 million to 65 million pounds of copper. Rainy River is expected to lead gold output, while Rochester and Palmarejo drive silver production.
Chairman and CEO Mitchell J. Krebs characterized the first quarter as a "strong start to what is expected to be a record year," noting that New Afton and Rainy River contributed only 11 days of results after the New Gold deal closed on March 20. The big question now is whether increased output from these assets can offset weaker metal prices.
Tai Wong, a precious-metals trader, attributed the pressure on gold and silver to a hawkish Federal Reserve and a strong U.S. dollar, saying the "gold trade is now out of favor." If prices remain below Coeur's guidance levels, the company will face a narrower margin to achieve its free cash flow target while covering sustaining capital expenditures of $291 million to $337 million, development capex of $146 million to $189 million, and $118 million to $132 million in expensed exploration this year. Higher production may help, but price moves are faster.
