ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (NYSE:XOM) completed its first trading session as the new public parent of the Exxon oil group on Thursday, closing at $137.09 after a modest 0.40% gain for the holiday-shortened week. The stock edged up 0.59% on the day, reflecting a quiet debut following the redomiciliation that shifted the corporate parent to Texas while retaining the familiar XOM ticker on the New York Stock Exchange.
The transition, effective July 1, saw each share of the former Exxon Mobil Corporation converted into one share of ExxonMobil Holdings, with the new entity assuming the listing status. According to an SEC filing, shareholders retained the same number and percentage of shares, with only their legal rights moving under Texas law. The move was largely seen as administrative, with the stock barely outperforming other major energy names.
Analysts polled by LSEG, as reported by Reuters, project second-quarter adjusted net income of approximately $15.9 billion for Exxon, a significant leap from the $4.9 billion earned in the first quarter. This would represent a more than threefold increase, driven by robust refining margins and tight supply conditions. However, the forward curve for Brent crude slipped into contango this week, raising doubts about the sustainability of profit growth.
Brent's six-month spread turned negative on Wednesday for the first time this year, dipping to minus 56 cents a barrel before recovering slightly on Friday. The weakness in prompt prices reflects increased crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, boosting near-term supply. UBS responded by cutting its Brent outlook, lowering the third-quarter forecast by $25 to $80 per barrel and trimming its 2027 estimate to $75.
Exxon's performance lagged behind peers on Thursday, with Chevron (NYSE:CVX) gaining 2.12%, Shell (NYSE:SHEL) rising 1.91%, and BP (NYSE:BP) advancing 3.47%. The broader energy sector, as tracked by the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE), added 0.81%. Trading volume for Exxon was 13.71 million shares, below the 17.81 million average, suggesting investor caution ahead of the earnings report.
The earnings outlook is underpinned by strong refining margins, with U.S. gasoline crack spreads averaging around $25 a barrel in the second quarter, up $16 from the prior period. Diesel cracks also improved, rising about $15 to $45 a barrel. However, these gains may be vulnerable as geopolitical tensions ease and supply dynamics shift. President Donald Trump's push for lower gasoline prices adds another layer of uncertainty for Big Oil.
Share buybacks could provide support for Exxon's stock. BMO Capital Markets analysts anticipate oil companies will accelerate repurchases in the second half of 2026. Exxon returned $9.2 billion to shareholders in the first quarter, including $4.9 billion in buybacks, and has targeted $20 billion in share repurchases for the full year if market conditions hold.
CEO Darren Woods described the company as "a fundamentally stronger company" after first-quarter results, emphasizing its ability to perform across market cycles. The next test comes Monday, July 6, when U.S. stock trading resumes, followed by the EIA weekly petroleum report on July 8. Investors will be watching for signs of whether the profit rebound can withstand headwinds from oil price weakness and political pressure.
