U.S. stock index futures moved higher in premarket trading Tuesday, buoyed by a modest retreat in oil prices after Monday's sharp gains sparked by Middle East tensions. The Nasdaq 100 futures led the advance, rising 0.58%, while Dow e-minis added 124 points (0.25%) and S&P 500 futures gained 0.33%. Brent crude slipped but remained above $110 a barrel, and U.S. crude traded near $106.
The pullback in oil provided some relief after Monday's selloff, which saw the S&P 500 fall 0.41% to 7,200.75, the Nasdaq drop 0.19%, and the Dow tumble 1.13%. The escalation near the Strait of Hormuz erased much of the positive sentiment built on strong earnings. “With the market at all-time highs, there’s not a lot of room for error,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management.
Key Data and Earnings on Tap
Investors are now turning their attention to the March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), due at 10 a.m. ET. The report, which measures job openings, hires, and quits, has become a critical gauge for labor market strength and could influence Federal Reserve policy. New York Fed President John Williams noted Monday that policy is “well positioned” but warned that supply disruptions and higher energy costs from Middle East tensions could affect the outlook. He expects inflation to hover around 3% this year before gradually moving back to the Fed’s 2% target.
Earnings season continues with reports from AMD, Pfizer, and KKR due later Tuesday. BlackRock Investment Institute’s Wei Li described U.S. earnings as “on a roll” but cautioned that stocks could face fallout if the Hormuz shipping lane remains closed.
Oil and Geopolitical Risks
Oil prices remain a key risk factor. Brent surged 5.8% on Monday to close at $114.44, while U.S. crude rose 4.4% to $106.42. The spike followed increased Iranian attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of global seaborne oil and gas. “The longer oil prices stay elevated above $100 a barrel,” said Brock Weimer, analyst at Edward Jones, “the more the fiscal stimulus from the tax cuts passed in 2025 shifts from being a stimulus to acting as a shock absorber.”
Barclays on Monday scrapped its 2026 Fed rate cut call, now seeing core PCE inflation holding above 3% through year-end. This underscores the delicate balance between energy-driven inflation and monetary policy.
Premarket Movers
In individual stocks, Pinterest climbed in premarket after projecting second-quarter revenue between $1.13 billion and $1.15 billion, above Wall Street estimates. The growth is being driven by smaller advertisers and AI-powered ad products, rather than large brands. “Large advertisers still matter for stability,” said Lenny Zéphirin of The Zéphirin Group.
Intel gained following a Bloomberg report that Apple has held early discussions with Intel and Samsung about manufacturing main device processors in the U.S. No deal has been reached, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. remains Apple’s primary chip supplier.
Palantir reported first-quarter revenue of $1.63 billion, up 85%, and raised its full-year outlook to $7.65-$7.66 billion. However, shares dipped after hours as CFO David Glazer flagged higher expenses ahead. CEO Alex Karp emphasized that “the United States remains the center” of operations.
As traders navigate these crosscurrents, the early strength in futures could be quickly erased if oil prices climb again or Gulf headlines signal wider conflict. With valuations stretched and Fed officials uneasy, the market remains on edge.
