Grab Holdings (NASDAQ:GRAB) shares ended Thursday's session at $3.46, sliding 0.86% and hovering just 28 cents above their 52-week low of $3.18. The stock has declined 47.7% from its 52-week high of $6.62, with trading volume reaching 42.29 million shares, or 78% of the 65-day average.
The latest pressure on the Southeast Asian ride-hailing giant comes from a regulatory decision in Indonesia, its largest market. Starting July 1, Grab and rival GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (IDX:GOTO) will slash commissions on motorcycle ride-hailing services to 8% from the previous 20%. This 12-percentage-point cut represents a 60% reduction in the fee structure for two-wheeled transport.
Indonesia is the dominant market for ride-hailing platforms in Southeast Asia and the only country in the region that imposes commission limits on two-wheel ride-hailers, according to a January Reuters report. The policy shift adds margin pressure to a business already grappling with rising incentives and fuel costs.
In the first quarter, Grab reported On-Demand Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of $6.1 billion and revenue of $955 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $154 million. Total incentives reached $650 million, representing 10.5% of On-Demand GMV. The company attributed higher partner incentives partly to fuel costs, keeping investors focused on unit economics.
Grab does not provide a country-level breakdown for GrabBike in its earnings releases. However, the mobility segment generated $337 million in revenue from $2.223 billion GMV, a take rate of 15.2%. The delivery segment posted $510 million in revenue on $3.908 billion GMV, a 13.1% take rate. The new 8% cap is significantly lower than those rates but only applies to the Indonesian two-wheel business.
CEO Anthony Tan described the quarter as a 'strong start to 2026,' while CFO Peter Oey reaffirmed the company is 'on track' to meet full-year revenue guidance of $4.04 billion to $4.10 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $720 million.
Political pressure is mounting alongside financial strain. Siwage Dharma Negara, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, told Reuters that motorcycle taxi drivers have become an 'increasingly visible political force' in Indonesia. GoTo vice-president director Catherine Hindra Sutjahyo said the company supports moves to raise driver welfare, while Grab Indonesia CEO Neneng Goenadi confirmed that GrabBike's commission will be set at 8%.
Despite the headwinds, Wall Street remains bullish. A MarketScreener survey of 27 analysts maintains a Buy consensus with an average price target of $5.939. Morgan Stanley analyst Divya Gangahar reiterated a Buy rating with a $5.90 target in a June 18 note. The lowest analyst target stands at $4.10, still above Thursday's closing price.
Short interest totaled 249.99 million shares, or 9.72% of the public float as of May 29, according to MarketWatch. The first major test arrives next week when the 8% cap takes effect, giving traders an opportunity to gauge the stock's direction ahead of the next operating update.
