IREN Limited (NASDAQ:IREN) saw its shares decline approximately 5% in early afternoon trading on Tuesday, underperforming both Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite. The stock's decline comes as investor focus shifts to the company's artificial intelligence infrastructure timeline, following reports that Anthropic is seeking at least 1.4 gigawatts of data center capacity in Australia.
At 1:48 p.m. EDT, IREN shares were trading at $41.70, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $13.9 billion. By comparison, Bitcoin edged up 0.7% to $64,055, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.7% at 1:53 p.m. EDT.
The Australian Financial Review reported that Anthropic has issued a tender seeking at least 1.4 GW of data center power in Australia, with a requirement that at least 1 GW be operational by the end of 2027. The tender was reportedly sent to IREN, CDC Data Centres, AirTrunk, NextDC, and Stack, with a final decision expected in at least six weeks. This timeline contrasts sharply with IREN's publicly stated plans for its Bundey site in South Australia, which is targeting first power in 2028.
IREN's market capitalization remains higher than both TeraWulf (NASDAQ:WULF) and Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) combined, despite TeraWulf recently securing a $19 billion, 20-year lease agreement with Anthropic for a 401 MW AI campus in Hawesville, Kentucky. TeraWulf's market cap stood at $8.7 billion, while Marathon was at $4.8 billion. Other competitors in the space include Hut 8 Corp. (NASDAQ:HUT) at $11.0 billion, Riot Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:RIOT) at $7.7 billion, and CleanSpark Inc. (NASDAQ:CLSK) at $2.9 billion.
Investors are increasingly treating AI data center stocks as utility contractors rather than Bitcoin miners, with size alone no longer guaranteeing early inclusion in a buyer's first phase. IREN's 5 GW of secured power positions it well for future contracts, but the company's 2028 timeline for its Australian project may leave it behind faster-moving competitors in the near term.
IREN reported $3.1 billion in annual recurring revenue under contract in May, targeting $3.7 billion by the end of 2026. The company is also progressing on a 480 MW AI cloud build-out for 2026. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) holds a five-year option to purchase up to 30 million IREN shares at $70 each, tied to a strategic 5 GW partnership. However, the company's third-quarter revenue fell to $144.8 million, with net loss widening to $247.8 million, reflecting the transition from mining hardware to GPU-based operations.
Analyst sentiment remains mixed. Paul Meeks of Freedom Broker upgraded IREN to Buy from Hold on Monday with a $58 price target, though he cut revenue estimates for the June and September quarters. Meeks called the neocloud trade "all about adding supply on schedule over the next two years." Bernstein's Gautam Chhugani maintained a Buy rating with a $100 target, while J.P. Morgan's Richard Choe kept a Sell rating with a $46 target. The average Wall Street target over the past three months stands at $77.20, with a range of $46 to $100.
IREN joined the Russell 1000 Index on June 26, which could broaden passive ownership. However, the core question for traders remains whether IREN can secure AI revenue contracts quickly enough to match its 5 GW of secured power capacity.
