MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) saw its stock edge higher on Tuesday, closing at $12.77 with a 2.9% gain, but the advance lagged behind the broader sector as concerns over its artificial intelligence contract backlog continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The stock rose 11.8% over the past five trading sessions, significantly trailing the median gain of 21.6% among its peer group, which includes Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, and IREN Limited.
Peer Performance Gap Widens
While MARA managed to post gains, the disparity with its competitors was stark. Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT) surged 26.8% to $23.86, CleanSpark (NASDAQ: CLSK) climbed 21.6% to $15.68, and IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) advanced 16.3% to $40.50 over the same period. In contrast, Bitcoin, the primary asset underpinning many of these companies, edged up just 1.5% to $64,810. The broader tech sector, as measured by the Nasdaq, dropped over 2%, and Bitcoin declined roughly 2% on the day, yet MARA still managed to close higher.
Bernstein Maintains Cautious Stance
On Thursday, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated a Hold rating on MARA with a $17 price target, while maintaining a Buy rating on Riot Platforms with a $30 target. According to Bernstein's tracker, over 7.5 gigawatts in AI agreements linked to miners have been recorded, with the total value of multiple-year contracts estimated at more than $150 billion. All identified miners were rated outperform except for MARA, highlighting the firm's cautious view on the company's AI pipeline.
AI Contract Backlog and Market Context
The analysis indicates that investors are assigning higher premiums to miners with confirmed AI revenue streams. MARA's Texas deal aims for up to 2 gigawatts by April 2028, but the announcement mentioned tenant demand without finalized leases. Progress remains contingent on regulatory consent. In contrast, Riot has a 50 MW deal in place with Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), CleanSpark signed a twenty-year lease projecting $6.6 billion in contracted revenue, and IREN announced $2.8 billion in recent deals, with about 85% of its AI-cloud annualized recurring revenue goal above $4 billion secured.
Interim Support from Long Ridge
MARA's Long Ridge facility provides interim support as the company seeks occupants. The 505-megawatt data center campus generates approximately $144 million in yearly adjusted earnings. CEO Fred Thiel described it as an "ideal data center campus," but the $1.5 billion transaction still awaits regulatory clearance. Thiel noted that locations offering steady power supply would be "increasingly valuable," a perspective that aligns with current pricing trends.
Upcoming Earnings and Federal Reserve Meeting
MARA is scheduled to announce its second-quarter earnings before its August 6 conference call at 5 p.m. EDT. Investors are expected to focus on tenant conversion, financing terms, and the buildout schedule. The Federal Reserve is set to meet on July 28-29, and anticipation of higher interest rates could weigh on Bitcoin and data-center stocks that require significant capital.
Risks and Outlook
Bitcoin's volatility remains a key risk for MARA. The company needs to secure tenants for Long Ridge, attract customers for its Texas pipeline, and obtain financing for construction. Any delays could undo the recent rerating. However, MARA is no longer solely functioning as a Bitcoin proxy; additional rerating is likely contingent on securing AI revenue. The gap between MARA and its peers, a 9.7 percentage point difference over five sessions, offers a clearer signal to investors about the market's preference for confirmed contracts over pipeline potential.
