NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) saw its American depositary receipts gain approximately 3.6% during late-morning trading on July 29, 2026, reaching $4.85. This marks a potential third consecutive session of positive movement for the electric vehicle manufacturer's shares.
The uptick was driven in part by NIO's investment in CXMT Corp. (SHA:688825), a Chinese memory chip company. According to disclosures, NIO holds roughly 18.24 million shares in CXMT, acquired at 8.66 yuan per share. Following a 12.7% gain in CXMT's stock price to 52.95 yuan, NIO's stake is now valued at approximately RMB966 million, yielding an unrealized paper profit of around RMB808 million.
This unrealized gain is significant, amounting to about 2.4 times NIO's net loss in the first quarter of 2026. However, investors should note that these shares are subject to an 18-month lockup period, meaning NIO cannot realize this profit until the restriction is lifted. Morningstar analyst Jing Jie Yu cautioned that the initial rally in CXMT may be excessive, linking demand to the current memory supercycle.
Beyond the CXMT investment, NIO's core business performance remains the primary focus. The company delivered 191,123 vehicles in the first half of 2026, a 67.4% increase year-over-year. CEO William Li has projected 40%-50% annual growth, leading to an estimated 2026 delivery range of 456,439 to 489,042 units. This implies second-half monthly deliveries between 44,200 and 49,700 units.
Breaking down the scenarios: a 40% growth target would require monthly deliveries of about 44,219 units, an 8.9% increase from June's 40,597. The midpoint of 45% growth demands 46,936 vehicles per month, while the high-end 50% growth scenario necessitates 49,653 units monthly, a 22.3% jump from June.
NIO's delivery performance in the second quarter totaled 107,658 vehicles, slightly below its guidance of 110,000-115,000 set in May. In June, the NIO brand delivered 21,908 units, the ONVO sub-brand contributed 11,743, and the FIREFLY model accounted for 6,946. The company's profitability has improved, with vehicle margins rising to 18.8% in the first quarter from 10.2% a year earlier. CFO Stanley Yu Qu noted that NIO maintained a positive non-GAAP operating profit during the quarter.
However, risks persist. Preliminary data from July 1-26 shows a 2% year-over-year decline in retail sales of new-energy vehicles in China, with total passenger car sales falling 18%. This broader market weakness could pressure NIO's delivery targets.
In comparison, other Chinese EV makers also saw gains: XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) rose 3.2%, and Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) climbed 4.3%. The CXMT paper profit provides NIO investors with an additional catalyst, but sustained revaluation will depend on achieving monthly deliveries near 47,000 units with stable margins. The upcoming monthly delivery report will be a key indicator of progress.
