NIO Inc.'s U.S.-listed shares declined 2.9% to $5.58 on Wednesday, diverging from a broadly rising market as investors positioned ahead of the company's first-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release before the U.S. market opens on Thursday. The Chinese electric vehicle maker's ADR underperformed as major U.S. indexes climbed, with the Dow up 1.1%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.0%, and the Nasdaq adding 1.4%, buoyed by strength in semiconductor stocks ahead of Nvidia's earnings.
Options market activity suggests traders anticipate significant volatility following the results, with an implied swing of approximately 8%, according to data from TipRanks. Analysts expect NIO to report a net loss of 8 cents per American depositary share on revenue of $3.70 billion for the quarter ended March 31. This compares with revenue of $1.65 billion in the same period last year, reflecting the company's rapid growth trajectory.
NIO delivered 83,465 vehicles in the first quarter, nearly double the 44,323 units delivered a year earlier. Cumulative deliveries surpassed 1.08 million vehicles through March, the company reported. However, April deliveries moderated to 29,356 vehicles, up 22.8% year over year but down from March's 35,486 units, raising potential concerns about demand momentum entering the second quarter. Of April's total, 19,024 were NIO-brand vehicles, 5,352 were from the ONVO sub-brand, and 4,980 were FIREFLY models.
The company enters the earnings report after posting improved margins in the fourth quarter of 2025. Vehicle margin reached 18.1%, while total revenue was 34.65 billion yuan. NIO reported net profit of 282.7 million yuan for the quarter, with non-GAAP operating profit—excluding share-based compensation and other items—of 1.25 billion yuan.
CEO William Bin Li highlighted that full-year 2025 deliveries grew 46.9% to 326,028 vehicles, attributing the growth to in-house smart-EV technology that is delivering meaningful cost efficiencies. CFO Stanley Yu Qu pointed to fourth-quarter margin improvements driven by strong delivery and revenue growth, an optimized product mix, and cost reduction initiatives.
Investors will be closely watching whether NIO can sustain its margin improvements amid intensifying competition in China's premium SUV segment. Rivals including Xpeng, BYD, and Li Auto have recently launched new or upgraded models. Xpeng introduced its full-size GX SUV priced between 279,800 yuan and 359,800 yuan, while BYD upgraded its Denza N9 plug-in hybrid SUV and Li Auto released upgraded L9 variants. NIO itself plans to launch its largest SUV, the ES9, next week, having started pre-sales on April 9. ONVO also began pre-sales of the L80 on April 28.
Morningstar analyst Vincent Sun expects Xpeng's 2026 deliveries to increase about 12% to 482,400 vehicles, underscoring the competitive pressures. The key question for NIO is whether its expanding delivery base, multi-brand strategy, and path to adjusted profitability held up through the first quarter. If margins slipped after the holiday demand reset or if management signals slowing order flow, the recent delivery growth may be viewed less favorably by the market.
