Russia's push to legalize cryptocurrency trading faces a significant hurdle: only about one-fifth of the nation's crypto activity is expected to migrate to regulated exchanges in the first year, according to a new forecast from Sberbank. The bank projects onshore volume of 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles (approximately $46 billion at the top of the range), a fraction of the estimated 18 trillion rubles in annual crypto transactions nationwide.
The forecast, delivered by Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov, highlights a liquidity gap that could temper the impact of Russia's legalization drive. New venues gain legal standing on September 1, 2026, but most trading is likely to remain in offshore or informal channels, at least initially. Popov cited about 50 billion rubles of daily Russian crypto transactions, with "around 20% of this volume … will be traded on exchanges," as reported by FinanceFeeds.
Regulatory Framework and Investor Qualifications
The new law, effective September 1, establishes a framework for regulated crypto trading through exchanges and digital depositories. Non-qualified investors must pass a test and face a 300,000-ruble annual purchase cap per intermediary, as set by the Bank of Russia. Qualified investors are exempt from the cap but still must undergo testing. Initially, Bitcoin, Ether, and Tether (USDT) meet the liquidity thresholds required for trading, according to The Moscow Times.
Digital depositories, which form the backbone of the new market infrastructure, will need equity capital ranging from 50 million to 250 million rubles, depending on their activities, under draft rules. This regulatory buildout is expected to evolve over the coming years, with a licensing deadline for exchanges and depositories set for July 1, 2027.
Market Reaction and Price Action
Global crypto prices showed little reaction to the news. Bitcoin traded near $78,963, up 0.40% over 24 hours, while Ether slipped 0.11% to $2,478.62, according to a CoinGecko snapshot at 17:57 EDT on August 31. Tether remained stable at $0.999785. The modest price moves suggest that investors are waiting to see how the regulatory framework translates into actual trading volumes.
Sberbank's own stock rose 2.88% to 275.85 rubles in Moscow trading, though analysts caution that the move cannot be attributed solely to crypto policy. The broader market context includes ongoing volatility in crypto-related equities, with MARA Holdings shares recently dropping 10.1% as Bitcoin dipped below $80,000.
Long-Term Projections and Risks
SberCIB, the bank's investment arm, projects regulated volume will grow to 4.75 trillion to 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028, and reach 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029—roughly double the first-year midpoint. This trajectory suggests that while the initial onshore share is modest, the market could expand significantly as infrastructure matures and investor confidence grows.
Sberbank also plans to offer loans backed by Bitcoin, Ether, and USDT once regulatory approval is secured. This move would link custody demand to lending, potentially diversifying revenue streams beyond transaction fees, as reported by CoinDesk. However, risks remain: offshore venues may continue to dominate liquidity, slowing fee and custody growth. Sanctions could taint wallet addresses linked to Russian intermediaries, and volatile collateral could increase liquidation risk.
Russia still bans cryptocurrency for domestic payments, though exporters and importers may use it for cross-border settlements, keeping sanctions exposure central to adoption. The key signal for investors is not just legalization itself, but the regulated share of activity and the credit terms banks apply to crypto collateral. As the September 1 launch approaches, market participants will be watching whether the promised onshore volume materializes or if the liquidity gap persists.
