Silver prices retreated toward the $76 mark on Tuesday, giving back a portion of Monday's rally as a confluence of macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures weighed on the precious metal. Spot silver fell 2.3% to $76.27 an ounce by late morning, according to Reuters, reversing the 3.38% gain seen on Monday when U.S. markets were closed for Memorial Day.
The decline reflects growing concerns over U.S.-Iran tensions, rising oil prices, and persistent inflation fears that have reignited speculation about tighter Federal Reserve policy. Jim Wyckoff, market analyst at American Gold Exchange, told Reuters that bond markets now anticipate the Fed's next move could be a rate hike, which is negative for gold and similar non-yielding assets like silver.
A key factor adding to the bearish sentiment is India's recent decision to raise import duties on gold and silver to 15% from 6%, effective May 13. Heraeus analysts noted that the move places silver bars of 999 fineness and other semi-manufactured forms on a restricted import list—categories that account for roughly 90% of India's silver imports. Given that India absorbed 210 million ounces of silver in 2025, representing 18% of global demand, any sustained drop in Indian buying could pressure prices worldwide.
Despite the day's losses, silver remains up approximately 129% year-over-year, according to Trading Economics, though it sits far below its January peak of $121.64. The metal's dual nature as both a precious and industrial commodity—used extensively in electronics and medical devices—means it tends to exhibit greater volatility than gold.
On the supply side, the Silver Institute projects another deficit in 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of shortages. The group estimates a 67 million-ounce shortfall, requiring continued draws on above-ground stocks. Meanwhile, Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining is planning a U.S. IPO with a valuation target of up to $2.32 billion, aiming to raise $330 million to restart its Idaho mine.
Technical levels suggest near-term support at $76.40, followed by $72.00, with resistance at $78.95 and $89.00, according to Kitco. FXEmpire noted that silver needs to reclaim the $78-$79 range to regain upside momentum.
Looking ahead, traders are eyeing Thursday's release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—for clues on how energy prices and geopolitical risks might influence rate decisions. For now, silver's direction hinges on oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and Indian import flows as much as its own supply-demand fundamentals.
