Earnings

SoFi Stock Slips Despite Record Quarter as Tax Hike Dents Outlook

SoFi shares slipped 0.9% this week despite a record quarter, as a higher tax assumption offset EPS gains. Management raised revenue guidance but kept profit outlook unchanged.

James Calloway · · · 3 min read · 7 views
SoFi Stock Slips Despite Record Quarter as Tax Hike Dents Outlook
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SOFI $16.31 -0.97%

SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) closed Friday at $16.31, marking a 0.9% decline for the week, even as the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.6%. The muted market reaction came despite the digital financial services company posting a record second quarter, with adjusted revenue and earnings surpassing Wall Street expectations.

The company reported adjusted net revenue of $1.206 billion for Q2 2026, a 40% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS of $0.12, up 50% from the prior year. Loan originations hit an all-time high of $14.8 billion, up 69% year-over-year. The results were broadly positive, with adjusted EBITDA climbing 44% to $357.8 million and total members reaching 15.81 million, a 35% increase.

However, management's decision to raise its tax-rate assumption from mid-teens to 22% effectively offset the quarterly earnings beat. The revised operating forecast would have yielded an additional five cents per share under the original tax estimate, but the higher tax rate removed that gain from the issued guidance. As a result, the company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS guidance at $0.60, while lifting its 2026 revenue forecast to $4.75–$4.85 billion, up from the prior $4.655 billion midpoint.

Chief Financial Officer Chris Lapointe explained the decision to forgo near-term margin expansion, citing "too many large, attractive growth areas" that warrant additional investment. The company plans to channel the extra revenue into these opportunities rather than boosting profitability. This strategic choice drew mixed reactions from analysts. Tim Switzer of KBW described the quarter as a "lower-quality beat," while Andrew Jeffrey at William Blair viewed the balance-sheet expansion as a sign of increased long-term return potential.

The company's funding advantage remains a key pillar of its strategy. Average deposits accounted for over 90% of average liabilities during the quarter, and the interest-bearing deposit cost of 3.07% was 156 basis points lower than warehouse facilities. This translates to annualized interest savings of $712.6 million, representing nearly 45% of the projected 2026 EBITDA of $1.6 billion. The funding benefit supports investments in marketing, product development, and the increased tax burden.

Fee-based revenue contributed 39% of total revenue, with the loan-platform business generating $3.1 billion in originations, about 21% of the total. This capital-light segment allows SoFi to earn fees without retaining all loans on its balance sheet. However, the technology platform saw a 23% decline in revenue to $84.5 million, with contribution margin falling to 14% from 30%, following the exit of a major client.

CEO Anthony Noto emphasized that "spending remains strong" and "demand remains strong," pointing to robust credit metrics. The company projected personal-loan charge-offs at 3.7% excluding late-stage delinquent-loan sales, with an annualized rate of 2.62% including those sales and new loans. Personal loans accounted for over 70% of quarterly originations, highlighting the segment's importance.

Shares ended the week trading at 27.2 times projected adjusted EPS and 2.2 times tangible book value. Investors are now looking ahead to upcoming data on credit demand and employment, which could influence forecasts for borrower losses and interest rates. Key releases include the Fed's bank-lending survey, June job openings, and the July employment report.

The core challenge for SoFi is conversion: the company has achieved impressive growth in volume, deposits, and membership, but investors are seeking faster translation of these gains into reported earnings. With the tax-rate headwind now factored in, the market will be watching whether the company can deliver on its profit guidance while continuing to invest for the future.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market data may be delayed. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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