SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) shares closed Wednesday at $17.07, a decline of 3.23%, and edged up 0.18% to $17.10 in premarket trading. The stock has fallen 8.0% over the past week, sliding from $18.78 on July 10 to $17.28 by July 17. Trading volume on Wednesday reached 90.3 million shares, about 7% above the average, as investors braced for the company's second-quarter earnings report.
At Wednesday's close, SoFi was valued at 28.5 times FactSet's 2026 earnings per share (EPS) consensus of $0.60. Using the 2027 estimate of $0.81, the multiple drops to 21.1. The stock remains near analysts' median price target of $18, implying a potential upside of 5.4% from Wednesday's close. The consensus analyst rating is 'Hold.'
Q2 Expectations and Earnings Trends
Initial consensus for the second quarter projects revenue of $1.12 billion and EPS of $0.11. This EPS forecast represents a 21% decline from the $0.14 estimate three months earlier. Management previously guided for approximately 30% growth in adjusted net revenue for Q2, with the full-year revenue target of $4.655 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.60 remaining unchanged.
SoFi underperformed the broader market on Wednesday; the S&P 500 fell just 0.14%, while the financial-services index rose 0.20%. The company's first-quarter results provided a strong baseline: adjusted revenue grew 41% to $1.087 billion, adjusted EBITDA surged 62% to $339.9 million, and EPS doubled to $0.12. Growth was led by loans, with net interest income climbing 39% to $693 million, while fee revenue advanced 23% to $386.8 million.
Guidance and Analyst Commentary
Following the first-quarter beat, management chose to maintain its full-year guidance, a decision that drew criticism from analysts. Andrew Jeffrey of William Blair noted, 'SoFi uncharacteristically did not flow through first-quarter revenue and EBITDA upside.' Shares dropped significantly after the April guidance announcement. CEO Anthony Noto told Reuters that consumer health remains robust and that loan demand is expected to be solid in the second quarter.
For the second quarter, SoFi projects an adjusted EBITDA margin near 30% and an adjusted net income margin between 12% and 13%, compared to 31% and 15%, respectively, in the first quarter. The company also continues to guide for a maximum cumulative loss rate of 7% to 8% on its loan portfolio, which totaled $12.2 billion in Q1 originations, with personal loans making up $8.3 billion.
Macro Context and Risks
Markets faced higher rates on Thursday, with Nasdaq 100 futures slipping 0.37% as of 05:37 EDT. Brent crude edged toward $98 per barrel, and two-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest level in 17 months. Traders now see a 35% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July, up from 12% the prior week. An abrupt shift in rates could impact SoFi's funding expenses, loan rates, and demand.
Earnings Date and Key Metrics
SoFi is scheduled to report Q2 earnings at approximately 07:00 EDT on Wednesday, July 29, with a conference call at 08:00. Investors will focus on fee revenue, margins, credit trends, and full-year guidance. The earnings assessment requires more than 30% revenue expansion, and margins and forecasts must justify the current 28.5-times 2026 earnings valuation.
