Tesla's stock settled at $400.49 on Thursday, up 1.04% for the session, but the holiday-shortened week saw a 1.5% decline from the prior Friday's close of $406.43. U.S. markets closed Friday for Juneteenth, making Thursday the last trading day of the week.
The shares traded between $384.70 and $402.52 on Thursday, lagging the Nasdaq Composite's 1.91% gain but roughly matching the S&P 500's 1.08% rise. The mixed performance reflects a tug-of-war between bullish bets on Tesla's AI and robotaxi future and fresh regulatory headwinds in Europe.
AI and Robotaxi Spending Lifts Bull Case
Investors are increasingly valuing Tesla not just as an automaker but as a leader in physical AI and autonomous ride-hailing. Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch highlighted that capital expenditure is a key indicator of success in this arena. His team projects Tesla will spend $29.4 billion on capex in 2026 and $30.4 billion in 2027, well above the company's own plan of over $25 billion. These investments in plants, data centers, and equipment are seen as foundational for future earnings from robotaxis and AI-driven services.
European FSD Under Scrutiny
On the regulatory front, Reuters reported that Sweden's Transport Administration is seeking to block a Europe-wide rollout of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software unless the company disables its ability to exceed speed limits. The EU's Technical Committee on Motor Vehicles will review the issue on June 30. While Tesla's system still requires a driver to remain attentive, a tough European stance could undermine one of the key growth narratives for the stock.
If regulators impose strict limits or AI spending pressures free cash flow, Tesla's premium valuation could shrink, exposing it to traditional auto industry concerns such as pricing pressure, delivery growth, and competition.
Delivery Forecasts Get a Boost
On the demand side, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney raised his second-quarter delivery estimate to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000, citing stronger-than-expected sales in China, the U.S., and Europe. Deliveries, a key metric for automakers, are now tracking ahead of consensus, offering a potential catalyst for the stock.
Governance and Competition
Governance issues also surfaced. A securities filing revealed that Elon Musk exercised performance-based stock options, with the restricted shares vesting in January 2028. Musk stated he did not sell shares on the open market. The move reportedly increased his voting power to about 20%, a level investors are monitoring given his central role in Tesla's AI and robotics ambitions.
Meanwhile, Alphabet's Waymo, Tesla's primary U.S. robotaxi rival, recalled nearly 3,900 self-driving vehicles after some entered closed freeway construction zones. The incident underscores that the autonomous driving sector still faces challenges with edge cases, limiting any competitive advantage for Tesla.
Outlook
Tesla held the $400 level but failed to build on earlier weekly gains, leaving the stock in a holding pattern. The coming week will be critical, with investors weighing Goldman's bullish delivery call, Oppenheimer's focus on AI spending, and the looming European FSD review on June 30. The $400 mark remains a psychological line rather than a firm floor.
