President Donald Trump has called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to cease military strikes against Russian refineries and fuel infrastructure, arguing that these attacks are exacerbating a worldwide diesel supply crunch. According to The Associated Press, Trump made the remarks on Sunday at the Irish Open in Doonbeg, stating, "Don't hit diesel fuel."
Record Diesel Prices Highlight Supply Concerns
The request comes amid soaring diesel prices in the United States. The AAA national diesel average hit a record $6.1602 per gallon on September 12, up 10.46 cents from the previous day and 27.83 cents higher than the prior week. While the policy signal may influence fuel traders, it does not in itself restore damaged refinery capacity or ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Supply Gap Extends Beyond Russia
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) September oil-market report underscores the scale of the problem. Net diesel and gasoil exports from Gulf producers averaged just 390,000 barrels per day in August—only a quarter of their pre-war levels. Combined Gulf and Russian net exports were 1.6 million barrels per day below February levels, when these two sources supplied nearly 45% of global seaborne diesel and gasoil trade.
Thus, Russia is only part of the shortfall. A successful U.S. effort to halt new Ukrainian strikes could prevent further damage and allow repaired Russian units to operate, but it would not resolve the Gulf export collapse, mitigate shipping risks, or immediately reverse Russia's own restrictions on refined-product exports. The IEA also reported that global refinery throughput in August remained 4.2 million barrels per day below the previous year.
Impact on U.S. Market
The connection to the American pump is indirect. U.S. refineries produced more ultra-low-sulfur diesel than the country consumed in 2025, with imports accounting for only about 4% of consumption. Yet U.S. refiners and exporters operate within a global product market. The investor inference is that competition for fewer Gulf and Russian cargoes raises Atlantic Basin prices, making U.S. diesel more valuable both domestically and abroad.
However, there is a counterweight in the latest domestic data. U.S. distillate inventories rose by 2.087 million barrels to 106.274 million in the week ended September 4. This build suggests that not every headline indicates an accelerating physical shortage within the United States. Retail prices can also lag movements in wholesale fuel.
What Would Bring Market Relief?
Three observed changes would carry more weight than Sunday's statement: a confirmed pause in refinery attacks, higher Russian product exports, and a sustained recovery in Gulf diesel loadings. Without these, the 1.6 million-barrel-a-day gap remains the more critical fact for the fuel market.
For refiners, scarce diesel supports unusually strong margins, although gains can be offset by higher crude costs, operational disruptions, and political pressure. Freight carriers, farms, and construction businesses face the opposite exposure, as diesel is a direct operating expense. Fuel surcharges may recover some of the increase for transport operators, but usually with a lag and not always in full.
The strongest argument for a quicker price response is that futures markets discount expected supply before repaired barrels arrive. If Kyiv accepts the request and traders believe Russian refinery runs can stabilize, diesel cracks could narrow ahead of export data. That case still depends on verifiable policy and operational changes, not the request alone.
Monday's first useful test is whether refined-product prices ease relative to crude, rather than whether crude oil falls by itself. The next AAA reading and weekly EIA inventory report will show whether wholesale relief is reaching U.S. supply and retail prices.
