Vietnam's equity market resumed operations on Monday, February 23, following the extended Lunar New Year holiday closure. Trading on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) had paused from February 16 through February 20, with the weekend further prolonging the market hiatus. The reopening comes after the benchmark VN-Index concluded its final pre-Tet session with a gain of 0.55%, settling at 1,824.09 points.
That closing level marked the end of a three-week downtrend for the index, with the final week before the holiday actually registering a solid 3.9% advance. Market settlement schedules have experienced delays as a direct result of the prolonged closure, adding a layer of administrative complexity to the return to normal trading rhythms.
Brokers and securities firms are largely forecasting a turbulent re-entry period rather than a smooth, decisive rally. Kafi Securities, in its analysis, characterized the first post-holiday week as likely to be "more of a slog than a dash." The firm projects the VN-Index will test a resistance band between 1,850 and 1,860 points in the near term. Conversely, it identifies crucial technical support near the 1,790 level, which aligns closely with the 50-day moving average—a key trend indicator closely monitored by active traders.
Foreign investor activity remains a paramount focus for market participants. In the session immediately preceding the break, foreign investors were net buyers on the HoSE to the tune of nearly 196 billion Vietnamese dong, despite facing selling pressure in major names like BIDV, FPT, Novaland, and Bao Viet. For the entire week leading into Tet, net foreign buying was significantly more substantial, exceeding 3.1 trillion dong. Kafi Securities noted that Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MBB) attracted the lion's share of these inflows during that period.
The last pre-holiday session itself was a tale of two halves. The index stumbled in early trade but managed to claw back its losses by the closing bell, buoyed by supportive moves in the energy and banking sectors. Total trading volume for that day reached approximately 608.5 million shares, with the total value nearing 20.1 trillion dong, according to official exchange data.
Lương Thị Mỹ Hạnh, asset management director at Dragon Capital Vietnam, offered strategic advice to investors navigating the post-holiday environment. She urged market participants to look beyond initial volatility and maintain disciplined investment standards. "Risk isn't in short-term market moves, but in buying weak companies with poor governance," Hạnh emphasized in written commentary.
Global market conditions during Vietnam's closure could impart delayed influences on local trading. On the Friday prior to the reopening, U.S. equities closed higher after the Supreme Court overturned expansive tariff regulations, while Treasury yields held relatively steady. This mixed international backdrop may affect how Asian markets, including Vietnam, price risk as local trading desks come back online.
However, a straightforward positive reopening is not guaranteed. Analysts caution that should global market sentiment deteriorate in the coming days, or if overseas investors resume a net selling stance, the retail-driven Vietnamese market could experience a downward gap at the open. Such a scenario would put the VN-Index's defense of the psychologically important 1,800 level back into immediate focus.
As trading commences, immediate attention will center on two critical questions: whether foreign buying momentum has sustained through the break, and if the VN-Index can maintain its footing above 1,800 and potentially challenge the 1,850 area without losing support from the market's large-cap leaders. The interplay between foreign capital flows and domestic retail sentiment will likely dictate the near-term trajectory for Vietnam's resurgent bourse.
