XRP broke below the $1.15 support level on Friday, extending a sharp decline after last week's rally failed to sustain above key resistance. The token traded at $1.13, down 4.64% over the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of approximately $69.8 billion, according to CoinMarketCap data.
The move marks a shift in market narrative from a scarcity story driven by whale accumulation to a supply test. Large holders, which control about 74% of the circulating supply, had been steadily accumulating over the past six months, adding 1.53 billion coins. However, on-chain data now points to distribution. Analyst Ali Charts reported that more than 30 million XRP were distributed by whales over five days, while active addresses fell from roughly 50,000 to about 25,000 in two weeks, according to a CoinEdition item carried by KuCoin.
The selling pressure came despite a bright spot in spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows. XRP funds attracted $2.55 million on June 18, while Solana funds saw $2.99 million in inflows. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ether funds experienced outflows of $90.66 million and $12.77 million, respectively, per SoSoValue data cited by KuCoin.
Broader market weakness added to the headwinds. Bitcoin declined about 2.8%, Ether fell 3.1%, and Solana dropped 4.8%, making XRP's decline part of a broader risk-off move rather than an isolated token story. The peer context was not supportive, as risk appetite remained thin across the crypto space.
Technicians are watching key levels. FXStreet analyst John Isige noted that XRP remains vulnerable below the $1.20 pivot, trading under its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages. A daily close below $1.08 could expose the June low near $1.05, he wrote. Resistance is clustered between $1.17 and $1.25, while support is seen near $1.13 to $1.10.
Macro factors also weigh on sentiment. Mike McCluskey, co-founder of tx, told CoinDesk that the impact of the U.S.-Iran framework on crypto is less immediate than commonly believed, adding that traders are prioritizing pattern recognition over headlines after failed ceasefire attempts earlier this year.
The risk is straightforward. If ETF demand continues and XRP reclaims $1.15, the latest selloff could be viewed as profit-taking after a failed breakout. However, if $1.10 gives way, the six-month whale accumulation story may lose relevance in the near term. The market remains thin enough for either side to move it.
