Bitcoin maintained its position above $77,000 on Monday, trading near $77,500 with a modest gain of approximately 0.8% during a session characterized by thin volumes due to public holidays in major financial centers. Markets in New York and London were closed for Memorial Day and the Spring Bank Holiday, respectively, leaving cryptocurrency markets to trade without direction from traditional equity benchmarks.
The digital asset's resilience came amid a notable decline in oil prices, which fell more than 4% on Monday, touching their lowest level in two weeks. The drop was fueled by signs of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, raising hopes for a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, sources indicated that major sticking points remain unresolved, and analysts cautioned that previous talks have broken down at similar stages.
Despite the supportive backdrop of lower oil prices, which typically reduces inflation concerns and supports risk assets, bitcoin's advance was capped by persistent selling pressure from listed bitcoin funds. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $1.26 billion from May 18 through May 22, according to data from Farside Investors. Over the past two weeks, total outflows from these funds have exceeded $2 billion, a trend that market participants are watching closely.
Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, commented that sustained ETF redemptions would make it increasingly difficult for bitcoin to hold rallies, as institutional selling pressure weighs on prices. The focus on ETF flows has intensified as traders assess the impact of these redemptions on market dynamics.
Bitcoin outperformed other major cryptocurrencies, trading just above its 50-day simple moving average, a key technical level monitored by chartists. In contrast, ether, XRP, and solana all remained below their respective 50-day averages. Ether was last seen around $2,110.
In a related regulatory development, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved Nasdaq PHLX to list and trade Nasdaq Bitcoin Index Options last week. The product, which still requires sign-off from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allows traders to place bets on bitcoin's price at a specified level, settling in cash rather than the underlying asset.
Looking ahead, analysts flagged several risk factors that could disrupt the current market calm. A collapse in Iran talks could send oil prices higher, reignite inflation concerns, and push up Treasury yields, which tend to hurt yield-less assets like bitcoin. Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, noted that bitcoin's $75,000 to $77,000 range represents key near-term support, but warned that higher U.S. yields and geopolitical uncertainties could leave the cryptocurrency stuck in a range.
Investors are also awaiting U.S. ADP jobs data due Tuesday and euro zone confidence numbers later in the week, which could provide further direction for risk assets. The market's attention remains on whether ETF redemptions will stabilize after the holiday, whether the decline in oil prices will extend, and whether U.S.-Iran talks will yield a definitive outcome rather than further delays.
