Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH) experienced a notable decline in its stock price on Monday, closing at $28.23, a drop of 3.36%. This movement comes as investors brace for the company's second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release before the market opens on Thursday, August 6. The broader market, represented by the S&P 500, posted a gain of 1.48% on the same day, highlighting a divergence that suggests caution among market participants regarding Celsius's upcoming results.
The stock's recent performance has been volatile. Over the past week, Celsius shares had climbed 7.7%, rising from $27.12 to $29.21, before Monday's pullback. Since July 24, the stock has gained 4.1%. Trading volume on Monday was notably heavy, with 12.8 million shares changing hands, representing 138% of the 65-day average volume.
Earnings Expectations and Key Metrics
Wall Street analysts have set their consensus estimates for the second quarter, projecting revenue of approximately $887.7 million. This would represent a year-over-year increase of 20.1% compared to the $739.3 million reported in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are forecast to be in the range of $0.42 to $0.43, down from $0.47 in Q2 2025, reflecting a decline of roughly 9% to 11%.
The upcoming earnings report is particularly significant because it will provide the first clear comparison that excludes the impact of the Alani Nu acquisition, which was included for the full quarter in Q2 2025. The Rockstar Energy acquisition, completed on August 28, 2025, occurred after the end of the second quarter last year, making the year-over-year comparison less distorted than in the first quarter, which saw headline growth of 138%.
Revenue Bridge Analysis
Initial estimates suggest that if Rockstar's contribution remains consistent with the first quarter's $66.6 million, the revenue attributable to the existing portfolio (excluding Rockstar) would be approximately $821.1 million. This would imply an underlying growth rate of 11.1% year-over-year, with Rockstar contributing about 9 percentage points to the headline growth. This breakdown is crucial because it separates organic performance from acquisition-driven growth.
The first quarter highlighted significant disparities in brand performance. Overall retail portfolio sales increased by 29.8%, with CELSIUS brand sales advancing 6%, Alani Nu seeing a doubling of sales, and Rockstar declining by 13%. These figures, based on tracked U.S. retail channels for the 13 weeks ending March 29, illustrate the varying dynamics within the company's brand portfolio.
Margin Pressures and Options Market Signals
Gross margin is another area of concern. In the first quarter, gross margin fell to 48.3%, a decrease of 400 basis points year-over-year and 320 basis points below the second quarter of 2025. Management attributed the decline to promotional activity, higher aluminum costs, freight challenges, and tariffs. Despite this, adjusted EBITDA saw a significant increase of 181% to $195.5 million.
The options market is pricing in a substantial move following the earnings release. The midpoint of the bid-ask spread for the August 7 $28.50 straddle was approximately $3.44 late Monday, implying a potential swing of 12.2% in either direction. This suggests a trading range of $24.79 to $31.67 by Friday. Historically, Celsius shares have experienced average one-day moves of 13.4% following earnings, with a range including a 17.3% gain and a 24.8% decline.
Investors will be closely watching four key figures in the upcoming report: CELSIUS brand growth, Alani Nu sell-through, Rockstar revenue contribution, and gross margin. Alani's first-quarter sales were boosted by orders related to its transition into PepsiCo's distribution network, which may normalize in the second quarter. The company's earnings call is scheduled for 8 a.m. ET on Thursday, with competitor Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ: MNST) reporting after the close the same day.
Risks and Opportunities
Potential risks include further deceleration in core CELSIUS growth, stabilization of Alani order volumes following the distribution change, and continued margin pressure from Rockstar's downturn and rising commodity costs. Conversely, the results could exceed expectations if integration progresses faster than anticipated or if the product mix proves more favorable. The market's reaction will likely hinge on whether the company can demonstrate robust organic growth and manage margin expectations effectively.
