Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) closed the holiday-shortened week down 1.1%, despite a 2.1% gain on Thursday, as the market weighed its second-quarter profit outlook against a backdrop of softening crude prices and shifting investor focus. The oil major's adjusted net income for the second quarter is expected to be around $9.9 billion, according to LSEG analyst estimates, representing a 2.9% yield on its current market capitalization of approximately $336 billion. That narrowly beats Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), which is on track for $15.9 billion in adjusted net income against a $568 billion market cap, yielding 2.8%.
The week's trading saw U.S. markets closed on Friday for Independence Day, observed on July 3 in 2026. Chevron's shares ended at $169.20 on Thursday, up 2.12% for the day but still below the June 26 close of $171.10. In contrast, Exxon Mobil managed a 0.4% gain over the same period, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) rose 2.2%.
This divergence in stock performance comes as oil benchmarks remain under pressure. Brent crude futures traded at $71.94 a barrel on Friday afternoon, essentially flat week-over-week, while West Texas Intermediate settled at $68.78. Reuters reported that both benchmarks hit pre-war lows on Thursday, as recovery in Middle Eastern supply has exceeded expectations. Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, told Reuters, "Recovery in Middle Eastern supply is outpacing our initial expectations," which continues to weigh on Chevron's upstream crude business. However, refining margins are providing some support for the quarter.
The market's attention is also turning to gasoline prices, which remain about 22% higher than before the conflict, even as crude has fallen back to those levels. Bethany Williams, spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, noted to Reuters, "Gasoline prices don't move in lockstep with crude oil," highlighting the political and economic sensitivity of fuel costs.
Amid these trends, Chevron is pursuing new growth avenues beyond traditional oil and gas. Project Kilby, a West Texas gas-fired power plant designed to supply Microsoft's Pecos data center for two decades, represents a significant bet on the intersection of energy and technology. The company expects the site to reach up to 2.67 GW, with operations slated to begin in 2028. The project will utilize equipment from GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV) and Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT). Jeff Gustavson, who leads Chevron's new energies unit, told Reuters that the company is evaluating additional locations in the U.S. for similar power deals, saying, "If we can put the right pieces together to meet our return thresholds, you can see more announcements over time."
Looking ahead, Chevron has scheduled its second-quarter earnings call for July 31 at 11:00 a.m. ET, with CEO Mike Wirth, CFO Eimear Bonner, Gustavson, and investor relations head Jeanine Wai participating. The company has no scheduled events for the coming week. As the market digests the interplay between near-term profit yields, crude oil dynamics, and longer-term power infrastructure investments, Chevron's relative positioning against Exxon will remain a focal point for energy investors.
