Ford Motor Company (F) has revised its full-year 2026 profit forecast upward, incorporating a substantial $1.3 billion expected tariff refund that provides a cushion against ongoing aluminum supply challenges affecting its flagship F-150 pickup truck. The automaker now projects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) between $8.5 billion and $10.5 billion, up from the earlier range of $8 billion to $10 billion.
First-quarter results showed revenue climbing 6% year-over-year to $43.3 billion, with net income reaching $2.5 billion and adjusted EBIT landing at $3.5 billion. The EBIT figure includes a one-time $1.3 billion boost tied to refunds under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), following the U.S. Supreme Court's February decision to invalidate certain Trump-era tariffs.
However, the positive news is tempered by persistent production issues. F-150 output dropped 12% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, according to S&P Global Mobility data cited by JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman. The decline follows fires at supplier Novelis's New York facility, which have tightened aluminum supply and pushed F-150 inventory down 38% in April versus the prior year. Brinkman noted that Ford may face a more difficult recovery than previously anticipated.
Ford's CFO Sherry House emphasized that the path to higher margins is clear, with the company expecting to regain profits from Novelis in the second half of the year. CEO Jim Farley described the upcoming period as one of the most intensive stretches of product, software, and physical-services launches the company has ever faced.
The tariff refund, while not yet in cash form, provides breathing room as Ford navigates expensive electric vehicle (EV) investments. The company still expects approximately $1 billion in net tariff costs for 2026, with aluminum comprising the bulk of roughly $2 billion in commodity expenses. Losses from the EV-focused Model e unit remain projected at $4 billion to $4.5 billion for the year.
Segment performance was mixed. Ford Blue, which encompasses gasoline and hybrid vehicles, reported $1.9 billion in EBIT on $23.9 billion in revenue. Ford Pro, the commercial vehicle division, generated $1.7 billion in EBIT and saw a 30% jump in paid software subscriptions to 879,000. Meanwhile, Model e posted a $777 million loss for the quarter.
Ford is not alone in benefiting from tariff refunds. General Motors expects to recover $500 million, while Stellantis recorded a roughly €400 million ($467 million) boost in the first quarter. Volkswagen's finance chief was more cautious, telling analysts it is too early to discuss refunds.
Ford shares slipped to $11.86 by midday Thursday, down 38.5 cents. The market's reaction suggests that while the refund offers some relief, lingering concerns about production, cash flow, and commodity costs continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
