D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) saw its shares climb sharply on Monday after Mizuho Securities revised its price target upward to $35, up from $29, while reaffirming an Outperform rating. The stock closed at $26.71, a gain of $3.34 or 14.3%, outperforming the broader Nasdaq index which rose about 3% on the same day. The session saw shares trade between $24.50 and $27.14, with volume exceeding 35 million shares, pushing the company's market capitalization to roughly $9.8 billion.
The upgraded target came on the heels of D-Wave's first Analyst Day, where executives laid out an ambitious gate-model quantum computing roadmap. The company now aims to achieve 10 logical qubits by 2030 and 100 logical qubits by 2032. Logical qubits, which offer enhanced reliability compared to raw physical qubits, represent a key milestone in the path toward fault-tolerant quantum computing.
On the bullish side, D-Wave reported $33.4 million in bookings during the first quarter, a nearly 2,000% surge compared to the same period last year. Bookings, which represent customer orders expected to convert into revenue, signal strong demand for the company's quantum solutions. Additionally, D-Wave ended the quarter with $588.4 million in cash and marketable securities, providing ample runway to fund both its annealing and gate-model quantum initiatives.
However, bearish arguments are equally prominent. First-quarter revenue fell to just $2.9 million, an 81% year-over-year decline, largely due to a large system sale in the prior-year period that did not repeat. The net loss for the quarter widened to $18.4 million, while operating costs climbed on increased product development spending and expenses related to the Quantum Circuits acquisition. With earnings per share near negative $1.14, the current valuation is being driven by growth expectations rather than current fundamentals.
The stock's performance has been volatile, surging on growth optimism but experiencing sharp pullbacks when investors focus on revenue shortfalls, profitability concerns, cash burn, dilution risks, or timing uncertainties. At a market cap of nearly $10 billion, D-Wave is pricing in multiple years of quantum commercialization that have yet to materialize, making it a high-risk, high-reward proposition.
Investors are now looking ahead to the company's second-quarter earnings report, expected on August 6, 2026, though D-Wave has not officially confirmed the date. The report will be closely watched for signs that bookings are converting into actual revenue, whether demand is broadening beyond large, one-off deals, and updates on the company's strategic plans. Until then, QBTS remains a speculative play rather than a value investment.
