Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) shares climbed in Nasdaq premarket trading on Monday, recovering some of the steep losses from the previous session. The stock was last up 6.1% at $199.30 as of 4:58 a.m. EDT, following a 15.0% decline on Friday that brought the closing price to $187.77. Premarket volume reached 159,253 shares.
The recovery comes as investors digest new details from a regulatory filing by NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), which revealed a 9.3% beneficial interest in Nebius. The filing showed Nvidia holds 22,256,412 shares, but only 1,190,476 are owned outright. The remaining 21,065,936 shares are tied to a pre-funded warrant, representing 94.7% of the disclosed position.
Contrary to earlier speculation of a July issuance, Nvidia actually obtained the warrant on March 11. The economic price in that agreement was $94.94 per share. By Friday's close, Nebius shares had risen 97.8% from that level, and Monday's premarket price was nearly 110% higher. However, the warrant is not immediately exercisable; Nvidia cannot use it or sell the underlying shares before September 11, though SEC rules require its inclusion since it can be exercised within 60 days from July 13.
The market's focus now shifts to upcoming catalysts that could provide fresh demand signals for Nebius. On Wednesday, both Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) are scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell. Their commentary on infrastructure investments and capacity needs will be closely watched for insights into Nebius's growth trajectory.
The same day, the Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day policy meeting, releasing its statement at 2 p.m. EDT. Interest rate decisions are particularly relevant for Nebius, as its latest secured facility is based on SOFR. The company recently arranged a $775 million senior facility with pricing at SOFR plus 2.50%, secured by deployed GPUs and existing contracted cash flows.
Nebius has been experiencing robust demand, though expansion costs remain high. First-quarter revenue surged nearly eightfold to $399 million, while capital expenditures totaled approximately $2.5 billion. The company has increased its projected capital expenditure for 2026 to a range of $20 billion to $25 billion. CEO Arkady Volozh noted that demand is strong, with multiple customers competing for every additional GPU.
To address some of these concerns, Nebius recently launched partner-funded sites that require lower incremental capital. The company also highlighted over $40 billion in further contracted revenue from Microsoft and Meta, stating that cash flows and the new loan are sufficient to finance the deployment's capital expenses.
Despite these positive developments, risks remain significant. Nebius must secure power supplies, GPUs, and financing while meeting delivery deadlines. Rising interest rates, potential partner delays, or declining prices could pressure returns. The broader market context is also challenging: chip stocks declined on Friday amid investor concerns about AI spending, with Peter Andersen, CEO of Andersen Capital Management, noting that "the fear of missing out is shifting to a fear of significant overbuilding."
Peer performance was mixed last week. CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV) fell 11.4% on Friday to $71.88, ending the week down 1.8%. IREN Ltd. (NASDAQ:IREN) dropped 8.7% to $37.07 but still posted a weekly gain of 10.3%. Nebius recorded the largest Friday decline within the group, yet its weekly performance of up 5.7% was stronger than the Nasdaq Composite's 2.0% weekly drop.
