Friday's sharp decline in SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares has eroded the value of Nvidia's (NASDAQ:NVDA) last publicly disclosed stake by approximately $1.13 billion, based on the assumption that Nvidia's share count remains unchanged. The selloff underscores the interconnected risks between the chipmaker and one of its major customers.
SpaceX closed the regular session at $134.72, down 6.37%, while Nvidia fell 4.22% to $204.64. According to calculations, Nvidia's holding is now valued at $16.54 billion, a drop of $4.44 billion from the valuation reported in June. This marks a 21.15% decline from the $20.976 billion figure Nvidia disclosed in its Form 13F filing, which listed 122,764,805 SpaceX Class A shares as of June 30.
That filing, submitted on August 14, represents a historical snapshot and does not confirm Nvidia's current ownership. TheStreet's October 30 report, using SpaceX's price near $147 on October 23, estimated the stake at about $18 billion. Friday's close, however, supports a lower valuation, though it does not imply any new purchase or sale.
Valuation Breakdown
The table below illustrates the repricing of Nvidia's disclosed holding based on recent closing prices:
- June 30 shares: 122,764,805
- June 30 filed value: $20.976 billion
- Oct. 29 estimate: $17.665 billion
- Oct. 30 estimate: $16.539 billion
- One-day change: -$1.126 billion
- Since June valuation: -21.15%
These figures are based on multiplying the disclosed share count by each closing price. Thursday's close of $143.89 yielded a valuation of $17.66 billion, while Friday's $9.17 price decline resulted in the $1.13 billion loss. The calculations exclude transaction costs and taxes.
Market Impact and Portfolio Implications
Both stocks experienced significant losses on Friday. An illustrative portfolio split equally between the two at Thursday's close would have lost 5.30% on Friday, excluding fees and taxes, assuming no trades or rebalancing. This one-day result highlights shared downside risk, though it does not necessarily reflect the long-term correlation between the two stocks.
Investors should note that ownership in SpaceX and equipment sales to the company carry different risk profiles. The value of Nvidia's equity stake moves with SpaceX's stock price, while hardware sales depend on orders, deliveries, and customer payments. Neither exposure should be interpreted as a forecast of returns through 2030.
Commercial Connection
The relationship between the two companies extends beyond equity. On October 26, SpaceX announced a binding commitment for a GPU and equipment finance lease of approximately $40 billion, which would utilize Nvidia's Vera Rubin chips for terrestrial computing facilities. The lease covers GPUs and related equipment, but its face amount cannot be added to Nvidia's equity holding. The announcement does not allocate the full amount to Nvidia revenue, as financing, delivery, and recognized sales remain separate accounting events.
Key Evidence and Risks
Verified evidence includes Nvidia's June 30 filing, Google Finance data for the Oct. 30 close, TheStreet's report, and SpaceX's Oct. 26 release. However, the price-based estimates do not verify Nvidia's current share count, which may have changed before Friday's selloff. Additionally, the lease's closing conditions and delivery schedules remain unresolved, and delays could affect when the computing expansion begins generating revenue.
SpaceX targets closing the lease before year-end 2026, but that timetable depends on meeting specified closing requirements. Lease schedules are expected to begin after equipment delivery in the first half of 2027. Investors should monitor these developments closely, as they could influence both companies' financial performance and market valuations.
