U.S. stock futures slipped early Tuesday as persistent oil price pressures from the U.S.-Iran conflict kept traders cautious. Dow e-minis fell 0.16%, S&P 500 e-minis dropped 0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis slid 0.51%, according to Reuters. The market is navigating a crucial week packed with first-quarter earnings, Federal Reserve policy signals, and inflation concerns tied to rising energy costs.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs Monday, but the rally faces a reality check. About 44% of the S&P 500's market cap is set to report results this week, per Raymond James. "Whether or not those all-time highs are justified" is the key question, noted Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth.
Nvidia Leads AI Charge as Big Tech Earnings Loom
Nvidia (NVDA) remained the standout AI play, surging 4% to a fresh record high on Monday. The chipmaker's momentum comes as investors await earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META), all reporting Wednesday. These four giants are expected to collectively spend nearly $600 billion on AI capex this year, including investments in chips and data centers. However, analysts question the return on such massive spending. "What's the return on all the capital expenditure?" asked Joe Maginot, portfolio manager at Madison Investments. Microsoft faces particular scrutiny over whether its AI models have been "meaningfully disrupted," according to Melissa Otto of S&P Global Visible Alpha.
GM Beats Estimates, Raises Outlook
General Motors (GM) delivered a strong earnings surprise, reporting first-quarter core profit of $4.3 billion, or $3.70 per share, well above the $2.62 consensus estimate. The automaker also raised its 2026 core profit forecast to between $13.5 billion and $15.5 billion. CEO Mary Barra described the operating environment as "very dynamic," noting the company still books EV charges but relies on U.S. truck earnings for momentum.
Hilton and Centene Lift Guidance
Hilton (HLT) raised its full-year revenue per available room growth forecast to 2%-3%, up from 1%-2%, and increased its adjusted earnings-per-share outlook. The hotel chain's improved guidance reflects stronger occupancy and room rates. Health insurer Centene (CNC) also boosted its 2026 adjusted profit and revenue outlook after tightening cost controls. Its medical loss ratio hit 87.3%, beating the 89.42% analyst estimate, following similar moves from rivals UnitedHealth (UNH) and Elevance (ELV).
Energy Sector Surge and Refiners Shine
U.S. refiners Valero (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) have each surged over 20% year-to-date, driven by rising diesel and jet fuel margins. Analysts see further upside as product cracks remain elevated. "Whirlwind Q1'26," said Matthew Blair at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. BP (BP) reported first-quarter profit of $3.2 billion, more than double from a year ago, driven by oil trading gains amid the Iran conflict. However, the company warned that fuel margins remain vulnerable to Middle East supply shocks.
Laggards and Cautionary Tales
UPS (UPS) posted a 28% drop in adjusted quarterly profit after scaling back Amazon deliveries, pivoting to higher-margin data-center and healthcare shipments. Spotify (SPOT) fell nearly 9% in premarket trading after projecting second-quarter operating profit and premium user additions below targets, signaling caution for high-growth stocks. Oil prices remain a broader drag, with 24 companies pulling or trimming guidance since the war began, while 35 flagged higher costs and 36 cited financial hits, per Reuters. Procter & Gamble (PG) CFO Andre Schulten noted the consumer's "path to purchase is changing every day."
In this environment, picking the best stocks means focusing on concrete catalysts. Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, GM, Hilton, and Centene offer strong news angles, while refining names serve as oil hedges. UPS and Spotify highlight how this earnings season delivers both winners and losers.
