With U.S. markets poised to open in under an hour, Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley has laid out a bullish case for SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI), setting a price target of $22—roughly 20% above the August 18 reference price. The optimism hinges on a key metric: the proportion of new products opened by existing members, which reached 51% in the second quarter of 2026.
This cross-sell rate marks a significant improvement from 43% in the previous quarter and 35% in the year-ago period. For SoFi, cross-selling is not just a buzzword; it means marketing costs can be spread over a larger revenue base, potentially boosting profitability. In Q2, the company added 2.2 million products while gaining 1.1 million new members, pushing the average products per member to an all-time high of 1.54.
Q2 2026 Scorecard
The company's second-quarter results were robust across the board. Adjusted net revenue surged 40% year-over-year to $1.206 billion, while adjusted EBITDA climbed 44% to $357.8 million, yielding a 30% margin. GAAP net income came in at $156.6 million, or $0.12 per diluted share. Membership grew 35% to 15.8 million, and total products expanded 42% to 24.4 million. Loan originations jumped 69% to $14.8 billion.
Deposits played a starring role in the quarter's success. They funded over 90% of average liabilities, and the average rate on deposits was 156 basis points lower than warehouse facility rates. This differential translated into approximately $712.6 million in annualized interest savings, a company estimate that underscores the value of its funding strategy.
CEO Anthony Noto described the quarter as "a clear inflection point," citing resilient member spending, demand, and credit performance. However, the growth story is not without its warts. The Technology Platform segment saw revenue drop 23% year-over-year to $84.5 million, weighed down by client departures. Financial Services revenue grew 29% to $466.3 million, but its contribution margin slipped to 46% from 52%, indicating continued investment needs.
Mixed Analyst Sentiment
Wall Street remains divided. Among 27 analysts surveyed by Barron's, only nine rate SoFi a Buy, while 13 hold and five recommend selling. S&P Global's survey of 23 analysts shows a consensus Hold with an average price target of $19.92 and a wide range of $12 to $30. Morgan Stanley is notably bearish, maintaining an Underweight rating with a $16 target.
SoFi raised its 2026 revenue forecast to between $4.75 billion and $4.85 billion, but kept adjusted EBITDA guidance near $1.6 billion and adjusted EPS at around $0.60. This conservative stance signals that near-term profit gains may be modest, even as revenue accelerates.
The Bull Case and Risks
Moley's $22 target rests on two pillars: continued growth in cross-buying and the translation of that engagement into margin expansion. The 51% cross-sell rate demonstrates SoFi's ability to deepen customer relationships, but it remains unproven whether each additional dollar of revenue will flow to the bottom line.
Operating leverage is the next test. Fee-based income now accounts for 39% of total revenue, and cheaper deposits are reducing funding costs. These tailwinds could offset increased marketing spend and the sluggish technology segment. However, risks loom: rising bond yields could pressure fintech valuations and refinancing activity, while a deterioration in consumer strength might lead to higher credit losses. A slow recovery in the Technology Platform would leave SoFi leaning heavily on its lending operations.
SoFi shares had already climbed 18% ahead of Moley's call, according to Barron's. The stock now needs to deliver results, not just narrative. The $22 scenario depends on converting product breadth into sustained earnings growth—a challenge that will test the company's execution in the coming quarters.
