Shares of space-related companies, including AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Intuitive Machines (LUNR), and Redwire (RDW), experienced a volatile week, touching new 52-week highs on Thursday before reversing course Friday following a catastrophic failure of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket during a hot-fire test in Florida.
The explosion occurred around 9:00 PM ET Thursday on a launchpad at Cape Canaveral, as the rocket was being prepared for its fourth launch. According to Reuters, the uncrewed vehicle was scheduled to carry 48 Amazon Kuiper broadband satellites, though those payloads had not yet been loaded. Blue Origin acknowledged an 'anomaly' and said the cause remains under investigation.
The incident has refocused investor attention on the inherent risks of the space launch industry, a key consideration for companies like AST SpaceMobile that rely on frequent and reliable rocket deployments. The setback interrupted a broader rally in space stocks, which had been fueled by anticipation of SpaceX's upcoming initial public offering.
SpaceX is reportedly targeting an IPO valuation of at least $1.8 trillion, according to Bloomberg, citing The Business Times. This figure is lower than earlier speculation of over $2 trillion. The company is seeking to raise up to $75 billion in the offering, with a potential listing as soon as June. Leading banks including Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs are reportedly managing the book. SpaceX's 2025 revenue was disclosed at $18.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.94 billion.
AST SpaceMobile has its own history with Blue Origin. In April, the company reported that its BlueBird 7 satellite ended up in a lower-than-planned orbit due to an underperforming New Glenn upper stage. That satellite is expected to de-orbit, with insurance covering the loss. Looking ahead, AST has guided investors to expect the launch of BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 around mid-June on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. CEO Abel Avellan has stated the goal of having roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026.
AST SpaceMobile pitches its service as space-based cellular broadband, designed to connect standard smartphones directly to satellites. The company reports having around 60 mobile operator partners, covering over 3 billion users. It has achieved peak data speeds of 98.9 Mbps with an in-orbit Block 1 satellite, and maintains its 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million.
On Thursday, AST SpaceMobile reached a 52-week high of $133.80, Intuitive Machines hit $46.70, and Redwire peaked at $26.60. Intuitive Machines gained 13% on the day, Redwire added nearly 8%, and AST was up almost 3%. However, the Blue Origin explosion triggered a sharp reversal on Friday.
Some analysts view AST SpaceMobile as a more accessible pure-play on the direct-to-smartphone satellite market compared to SpaceX, given its lower valuation. Seeking Alpha contributor James Foord, who holds a long position, highlighted AST's 'space market exposure' as superior, citing its network, partners, and $3.5 billion in cash. However, risks remain, including launch timing, regulatory hurdles, and competition, as noted in AST's own filings. University of Florida professor Jay Ritter cautioned to Reuters that companies with high price-to-sales ratios may have compelling stories, 'but, you know, stuff could go wrong.'
In a recent SEC filing, AST President Scott Wisniewski disclosed the sale of 25,904 Class A shares at a weighted average price of $126.64 on May 27. He retains 745,973 shares.
