New York, July 10, 2026 – Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) experienced a sharp decline in Friday afternoon trading, with shares falling 2.2% to $148.74. This drop extends a selloff that has now erased approximately $154 billion in market value over the past four sessions, pushing the stock 7.3% below its July 6 closing price—the last trading day before it joined the benchmark Nasdaq-100 index.
Index Inclusion Fails to Stem Losses
The magnitude of the decline dwarfs the estimated $4.3 billion in passive demand from index-tracking funds, as calculated by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM). This passive buying, which automatically allocates capital to newly indexed stocks, proved insufficient to support a company valued at nearly $2 trillion. Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, noted that 'nervousness about expectations being too high' is likely to persist until the company releases its earnings report.
Key Price Levels
Despite the recent losses, SpaceX stock remains above its initial public offering price of $135, trading at a 10.2% premium. However, it has fallen 7.6% from the first-day close of $160.95 and is down a staggering 34.1% from its all-time high of $225.64. The current implied equity value stands at approximately $1.96 trillion, based on 13.159 billion shares outstanding after underwriters exercised their full option.
AI Deals Provide Some Support
Friday's trading saw some support from artificial intelligence-related agreements. According to filings reviewed by Reuters, SpaceX has entered into pacts with Anthropic, Alphabet Inc.'s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google, and Reflection AI that could generate over $28 billion annually from compute services, primarily data center power rentals. At current share prices, this implies a valuation multiple of roughly 70 times that revenue stream, before operating costs. However, these contracts include termination clauses, making the revenue uncertain. Anthony Milovantsev, a partner at consultancy Altman Solon, cautioned that 'any kind of displacement of terrestrial data centers is 10 years plus out,' suggesting the orbital AI payoff is unlikely this decade.
Operational Milestones and Competitive Landscape
On the operational front, SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket continues to set records, with a booster flying for the 36th time on Thursday during the company's 80th Falcon 9 mission of 2026. Meanwhile, China achieved its first offshore recovery of an orbital-class Long March 10B booster using a net, signaling progress in narrowing the reusable-rocket technology gap. The broader space sector also faced headwinds, with Rocket Lab USA Inc. (NASDAQ:RKLB) falling 0.8% and Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ:FLY) losing 2.6%, reflecting a sector-wide decline not solely attributable to SpaceX's performance.
Market Impact and Risks
The scale of SpaceX's market capitalization means that even routine percentage moves have outsized dollar impacts. Friday's 2.2% decline alone shaved off roughly $45 billion, equivalent to Rocket Lab's entire market cap of $49.6 billion and more than 11 times Firefly's $3.9 billion valuation. Looking ahead, the stock's trajectory could shift rapidly based on solid AI revenue realization, faster Starlink growth, or successful Starship test flights. However, risks include contract cancellations, sustained high spending, or insider selling after the 180-day lock-up period ends. CFRA analyst Keith Snyder, who has a $115 price target—about 23% below current levels—remains cautious, stating, 'Hope isn’t a business strategy.' The market's response this week underscores that index-driven buying offers no guarantee of valuation support.
