U.S. markets closed Friday with TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: WULF) facing a critical delivery challenge. The company has activated only 102 megawatts (MW) of its contracted 839 MW AI and high-performance computing (HPC) pipeline, a 12.2% completion rate that has become a focal point for investors. Shares ended the session at $17.08, down 3.3% for the week, underperforming the Nasdaq Composite by 8.5 percentage points.
The company's pivot toward AI infrastructure is evident in its second-quarter results. HPC lease revenue reached $31.9 million, accounting for 71% of total revenue, while digital-asset revenue fell to $12.8 million, a 73.1% decline year-over-year. Total revenue slipped 6.0% to $44.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA turned negative at $(18.3) million, a $32.9 million swing from the prior year.
CEO Paul Prager described the transition as moving "from platform formation to scaled execution." That execution is now the primary risk. Of the 737 MW remaining to be delivered, 336 MW are under construction at the Lake Mariner facility, with lease payments expected to begin in the second half of 2026. The remaining 401 MW, contracted to Anthropic, are slated for first delivery in H2 2027 and full output by early 2028.
Once Lake Mariner's current construction phase is complete, total energized capacity will reach 438 MW, just 52.2% of the contracted load. The balance depends on the Anthropic block, which represents approximately $19 billion in initial contracted revenue, with potential extensions bringing the total to $33 billion.
Investors are watching the company's balance sheet. As of June 30, cash and restricted cash stood at $3.03 billion. Equipment acquisitions and deposits for the first half totaled $1.38 billion, while operating expenses consumed $154.3 million. The planned sale of the Abernathy data center is expected to generate approximately $530 million, providing additional liquidity for ongoing construction.
The market's reaction has been mixed. TeraWulf outperformed Hut 8 (NASDAQ: HUT) and Cipher Digital (NASDAQ: CIFR) over the past week, but lagged IREN Limited (NASDAQ: IREN) and Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD). Analysts remain overwhelmingly positive, with 19 Buy ratings and one Overweight, and no Hold or Sell recommendations. The median price target stands at $36.00, implying 111% upside, while the average target is $37.37, suggesting 119% potential gain. Targets range from $25 to $72, reflecting uncertainty about delivery timelines and funding.
Looking ahead, key catalysts include the commissioning of CB-4 and the start of second-half lease revenue. Macro data due next week includes consumer inflation on Wednesday, producer prices on Thursday, and retail sales on Friday. TeraWulf has no investor events scheduled.
Despite the optimistic analyst outlook, the company's ability to convert its contracted pipeline into operational, revenue-generating capacity will be the decisive factor. The wide range of price targets underscores the execution risk. Investors are advised to monitor progress on the 336 MW under construction and the timing of Anthropic deliveries.
