TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ:WULF) closed Friday at $18.16, up 1.0% on the day but down 17.3% for the week. The decline followed New York’s July 14 executive order pausing incomplete state permits for large data centers, shifting the valuation debate from signed leases to undeveloped power assets.
New York Order and Capacity Exposure
The investor question centers on how much of TeraWulf’s pipeline is at risk. According to company disclosures, 482 MW of TeraWulf’s 2,082 MW open capacity is located in New York—just 23%. The remaining 1,600 MW is in Kentucky and Maryland. However, the New York projects carry the clearest permit risk. Lake Hawkeye, a 320 MW project still in permitting with no contracted capacity, is most exposed. Lake Mariner, which already operates with 438 MW contracted and 162 MW open, faces less immediate risk.
Executive Order 62 applies to data centers capable of using at least 50 MW. It holds applications that were not deemed complete by July 14. Local permits are excluded, and no project-specific state determination for TeraWulf has been verified. Rosenblatt analyst Chris Brendler retained a Buy rating and $30 target, calling the development “more headline risk than structural.” Still, the order could lead to new grid charges, capital requirements, or longer timelines.
Out-of-State Growth and the Anthropic Deal
The largest new lease sits outside New York. Anthropic signed a 401 MW lease at TeraWulf’s Justified Data site in Kentucky. TeraWulf expects approximately $19 billion in gross revenue over 20 years, with delivery running from late 2027 through early 2028. CEO Paul Prager said the lease “validates our strategy and establishes a long-duration revenue stream.” Rent begins only after each phase is delivered.
The shift toward high-performance computing (HPC) is already visible in revenue. First-quarter HPC lease revenue was $21 million, compared to $13 million from bitcoin mining. HPC supplied 62% of total revenue.
Cash Test Ahead
The week ahead brings a critical cash test. The Abernathy sale agreement requires a $250 million first installment within 14 days of July 6, implying a July 20 deadline. Total consideration is approximately $530 million.
Price action has been rough. Shares fell 7.1% on Tuesday and 7.2% on Thursday, with Friday’s gain recovering little of the weekly loss.
Risks and Outlook
Risks remain. The New York order could delay uncontracted expansion. The Anthropic figure is gross, long-dated contract revenue, not profit. Construction, funding, and credit support will shape eventual cash returns. Until the Abernathy payment and state permit guidance are clarified, execution on funded, permitted megawatts will carry more weight.
