Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) closed up 5.47% at $76.20 on Friday, bucking a broader tech selloff that sent the Nasdaq Composite down 0.24%. The rally came on massive trading volume of 64.58 million shares, roughly 3.46 times the stock's 65-day average, translating to about $4.9 billion in shares exchanged hands.
Volume spike and market context
The surge lifted Uber 6.4% from its June 18 close before the Juneteenth holiday. For the week, the Nasdaq fell 4.6% and the S&P 500 lost 2.0%, but Uber's gain still left it 25.3% below its 52-week high of $101.99. U.S. markets will trade for four sessions this week, with NYSE and Nasdaq closed on July 3 for Independence Day.
Safety overhaul begins Monday
Investors are focusing on two key risks: higher safety costs and the long-term impact of robotaxis. Starting Monday, Uber will implement stricter U.S. driver background checks, broadening the range of criminal convictions that can disqualify drivers and couriers, regardless of how old the offense is. Bloomberg Law reported that Uber expects tens of thousands of gig workers — about 0.5% of its active U.S. base — to be removed.
While the national impact appears small, localized cuts could affect trip availability, wait times, and margins. Uber may need to increase incentives or accept slower service in some areas.
Robotaxi outlook remains limited
BTIG analyst Jake Fuller maintained a Buy rating and $100 price target on Uber, representing 31.2% upside from Friday's close. He noted that Uber's autonomous vehicle moves have not yet meaningfully shifted investor sentiment. BTIG estimates about 4,100 robotaxis are providing paid rides across 11 U.S. cities, with Waymo operating nearly 3,800. Roughly 1,000 autonomous vehicles are available on Uber's app in the U.S., including 800 Waymo cars, of which 500 are also on Waymo's own app. Uber's non-Waymo robotaxi supply is about 200 vehicles. BTIG does not expect that supply to reach thousands until 2027 or 2028.
Strong fundamentals underpin valuation
Uber's core business continues to perform well. First-quarter trips rose 20% to 3.6 billion, gross bookings increased 25% to $53.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA grew 33% to $2.5 billion, and free cash flow reached $2.3 billion. For the second quarter, Uber guides gross bookings between $56.25 billion and $57.75 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $2.70 billion to $2.80 billion.
CEO Dara Khosrowshahi noted that Uber One members now account for about half of gross bookings in Mobility and Delivery. CFO Balaji Krishnamurthy emphasized a capital-efficient approach to autonomous vehicles.
What to watch this week
With the safety reset starting Monday and a shortened trading week due to the July 3 holiday, investors will closely watch how the new background checks affect operations. BTIG's analysis suggests the market is not yet assigning significant value to Uber's near-term control over autonomy, focusing instead on its cash generation.
