U.S. stock futures edged higher on Tuesday, with investors broadening their artificial-intelligence bets beyond the mega-cap technology names. The move was led by a surge in AI infrastructure stocks, as the market focused on companies supplying the hardware, software, and power systems needed for data center expansion.
Futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.20%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.78%. Dow futures climbed 0.64%. The gains were broad-based but most pronounced in AI-related names, with six companies identified by Reuters as beneficiaries of AI capital spending posting a median premarket increase of 8.9% — 8.7 percentage points ahead of the S&P futures.
This divergence highlights a market that is rewarding specific infrastructure constraints rather than assigning a uniform premium across the board. The cash market remained closed at the dateline, with regular trading set to resume at 9:30 a.m. EDT. The S&P 500 was roughly 21 points shy of its all-time high.
Strong Earnings Season Provides Support
The earnings season continues to deliver upside surprises. Of the 304 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 85.2% have beaten analyst forecasts, well above the historical average of 67.5%. This robust beat rate has helped underpin equity valuations, even as the market navigates a complex macro environment.
Monday's session saw widespread gains, with oil prices dropping about 5% on optimism over easing U.S.-Iran tensions, and declining yields alleviating pressure on equity valuations. Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) rose 4.6%, pushing its market capitalization above $3 trillion. Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) provided significant lifts to the Dow, while Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) drove a 4.3% increase in communication services.
Premarket Movers: AI Infrastructure in Focus
Tuesday's premarket gains were more concentrated, centering on companies supplying software, networking, equipment, and power systems for data center expansion. Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) led the charge, rising 16.0% after lifting its annual revenue guidance. The company's second-quarter revenue surged 93% to $1.94 billion, and CEO Alex Karp said the company was growing at a rate and scale never seen before.
Coherent (NYSE:COHR) gained 11.8% after Reuters reported that U.S. authorities are preparing potential rules targeting upcoming Chinese optical-transceiver products. Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ:LITE) rose 9.3% on the same news. Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) advanced 8.5% amid ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure, while Onsemi (NASDAQ:ON) climbed 7.6% after its third-quarter outlook beat estimates. Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) rounded out the top movers, up 7.5% after quarterly earnings exceeded expectations and its outlook improved.
Optical Stocks Choppy on Regulatory News
Optical stocks experienced choppy trading following the Reuters report on potential U.S. restrictions on Chinese transceivers. A previous Barron's screen had shown Coherent jumping 19.3% and Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ:AAOI) rising 18.9%, but those gains later eased. The catalyst is still at an early stage, and the plan may yet be revised or dropped.
Fundamental Strength Across the Board
The fundamental picture remains solid. Palantir's 2026 revenue outlook midpoint rose to $8.154 billion, a 6.5% increase from the prior midpoint of $7.656 billion. Onsemi's third-quarter revenue midpoint of $1.70 billion came in 1.8% above market consensus. Caterpillar reported adjusted EPS of $8.17, beating consensus by 31.8%, and its order backlog hit a new high of $72.1 billion, driven by stronger demand for power and construction machinery from data-center development.
As of Friday, S&P 500 earnings had increased by 29.3%, limiting the market's dependence on price momentum alone. However, positioning has the potential to intensify each shift. Brian Levitt, a strategist at Invesco (NYSE:IVZ), noted that momentum-driven sectors often overshoot in both directions.
Looking Ahead: Labor Data and Rate Expectations
Investors now turn their attention to upcoming U.S. labor reports, with expectations for June job openings around 7.4 million, a decrease from 7.6 million previously. Data on factory orders and trade are also awaited. Rate futures reflected a 63.4% probability of at least a quarter-point hike in September.
Risks remain: the suggested transceiver limits are still in draft form, and early session advances may be short-lived. Stronger labor readings or a fresh oil price surge could raise yields and weigh on high-duration AI stocks.
