Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) experienced a dramatic premarket swing on Monday, with a stock movement that far outpaced any concrete sales projections tied to its anticipated first foldable iPhone. The stock was trading at $306.16 as of 7:01 a.m. EDT, down 0.8% in premarket activity, after closing the previous session at $308.63, a gain of 4.84%. U.S. markets were closed on Friday, July 3, in observance of Independence Day. Regular NYSE trading hours run from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.
The key number is the equity move itself. A $14.25 rise per share on 14.69 billion outstanding shares translates to approximately $209 billion in added market value. That figure is more than ten times the upper bound of Ming-Chi Kuo's second-half 2026 foldable iPhone sales estimate, and that is before accounting for costs, channel margins, or accounting adjustments. The market capitalization now stands at $4.53 trillion, keeping Apple among the largest components of major indices.
Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, released a new supply chain check indicating that Apple could ship between 7 million and 8 million foldable iPhones in the second half of 2026. He expects just 500,000 to 1 million units in the third quarter of that year. Kuo sees the price ranging from $2,300 to $2,500 and suggests the device "could sell out immediately" on pre-orders. The gross device sales implied by these figures range from $16.1 billion to $20.0 billion for the period.
The gap between the stock's single-session market cap gain and the foldable iPhone revenue projections is a critical consideration for investors. The stock is not trading solely on first-quarter foldable shipments. The broader narrative revolves around whether an iPhone priced above $2,300 can push up Apple's average selling price and sustain the upgrade cycle through 2027. Kuo noted that Apple's foldable could follow the iPhone X playbook, being announced alongside other devices but shipping later due to limited inventory. Real demand may not become clear until late 2026 or early 2027, once launch buzz and supply issues settle.
Broader market sentiment was relatively steady early Monday. At 7:24 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 0.04%, while S&P 500 E-minis rose 0.44% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis added 1.1%, according to Reuters. All three major U.S. indexes finished the previous week up about 2%, with the Dow setting a record close on Thursday. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, commented to Reuters, "This week, investors are still debating tech valuations, asking if they're too high or if they add up."
Apple's most recent fiscal Q2 results showed revenue of $111.2 billion, up 17% year-over-year, with diluted EPS of $2.01, up 22%. CEO Tim Cook described it as Apple's "best March quarter ever." The board also approved an additional $100 billion for share buybacks. The $209 billion single-session market cap jump is roughly 1.9 times Apple's most recent quarterly revenue and about 2.1 times the new buyback authorization.
Apple is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 earnings on July 30, with details available on its investor relations website. The divergence between the stock's valuation move and the underlying product sales forecasts will likely remain a focal point for analysts and investors in the weeks ahead.
