Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw its shares inch higher in premarket trading Monday, recovering a fraction of the steep losses from the previous session. The stock was up 1.13% to $397.90, after plunging 7.49% on Friday following the release of its second-quarter delivery figures.
The initial selloff came despite Tesla reporting record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles for the quarter, a figure that exceeded internal sell-side consensus of 406,024 by 18.3%. However, a closer look at the numbers revealed a more nuanced picture: Tesla delivered 28,368 more cars than it produced in Q2, signaling a significant dip into inventory.
According to Tesla's investor relations data, the delivery-production gap represented 6.3% of total production. The bulk of the excess deliveries came from the Model 3 and Model Y lineup, where deliveries outpaced production by 24,826 units, or 5.6%. Other models, including the Cybertruck and Semi, saw deliveries exceed production by 3,542 vehicles, a 40.1% gap.
This inventory drawdown is a key focus for investors, as it suggests that Tesla's delivery beat was not solely driven by increased output but by selling from existing stock. For a company whose stock trades heavily on growth narratives, any outperformance must now translate into healthy earnings, stable pricing, and improved margins. Analysts caution that relying on inventory reduction could mask underlying demand softness if it comes at the cost of aggressive price cuts or low-margin sales.
Market reaction was mixed among analysts. Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, noted on X that Tesla shares could see a bounce this week as analysts revise their Q2 and full-year 2026 earnings estimates upward. However, he described the stock as "fully priced" given its high multiple on 2026 earnings and attributed recent EV demand to rising gas prices rather than autonomous driving hype.
Seth Goldstein of Morningstar raised his fair value estimate for Tesla to $450 from $425, calling the delivery beat a positive surprise. He expressed surprise at Friday's selloff but maintained that the shares are fairly valued and advised investors to wait for a wider margin of safety before buying.
Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki took a more cautious view, posting on X that the market's negative reaction to strong sales numbers was justified. He pointed to lower gas prices as a potential drag on demand and noted that Tesla effectively "makes just 3 models," limiting its product breadth compared to competitors.
On the autonomous driving front, Tesla announced that its robotaxi service is now live in Miami, following the launch of unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin in June. The service is geofenced to parts of West Miami, Coral Gables, and Sweetwater, notably excluding downtown, the airport, and Miami Beach. This limited rollout comes as Alphabet's Waymo and Amazon's Zoox continue to expand their own robotaxi operations.
Tesla is scheduled to report its full Q2 financial results after the market close on July 22, with a webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET. Investors will be watching closely to see whether the delivery beat translated into healthy margins or simply reflected a clearance of older inventory.
Broader market conditions were mixed Monday morning. Dow futures edged down 0.04%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.44% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.1%, supported by strength in chip stocks. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, noted that investors will continue to question technology valuations in the week ahead.
