Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) both saw their shares edge higher in premarket trading on Monday, as investors positioned ahead of quarterly earnings due after the closing bell. Rocket Lab shares were up 2.5%, while ASTS gained 0.8%, building on solid gains from Friday's session.
According to preliminary estimates, Rocket Lab is expected to report second-quarter revenue of approximately $230.95 million, which is close to the midpoint of its guidance range of $225 million to $240 million. The company also projected a GAAP gross margin between 33% and 35%, down from 38.2% in the first quarter. Management has reiterated that the Neutron rocket remains on track for its debut later this year.
AST SpaceMobile, meanwhile, faces a steeper challenge. The company reported just $14.7 million in revenue for the first quarter, and its preliminary Q2 estimate stands at $34.4 million. To meet its 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, ASTS would need to generate between $100.9 million and $150.9 million in the second half of the year. That translates to an average of $50.4 million to $75.4 million per quarter, representing a sequential growth of 47% to 119% from the Q2 projection.
Investors are likely to focus on different metrics for each company. For Rocket Lab, a routine revenue beat may not be enough to move the stock; margins and the timeline for Neutron's first launch will be key. For ASTS, the market will be looking for evidence that its revenue trajectory can accelerate to meet its ambitious annual target.
Rocket Lab has also recently secured two U.S. Space Force contracts worth up to $663 million, including a $397 million award with an option for spacecraft, launch, and operational services. CEO Peter Beck described the offerings as "uniquely positioned to deliver innovative solutions." However, since both awards were announced after June 30, investors should not expect their full value to appear in the second-quarter backlog, a detail that may be discussed on the earnings call.
ASTS achieved a key operational milestone last week when BlueBird satellites 11, 12, and 13 entered orbit on August 5. Satellites 14, 15, and 16 are preparing for the next mission, with production ongoing up to satellite 42. CEO Abel Avellan stated, "We remain focused on scaling our cellular broadband network as we prepare for beta services later this year."
Analyst sentiment remains more favorable toward Rocket Lab. According to FactSet, Rocket Lab holds an Overweight rating with a consensus of 15 buy/overweight ratings, 3 holds, and 4 underweight/sell ratings. The average price target is $116.24, implying upside of 40.3% from Friday's close. ASTS, rated Hold, has 4 buy/overweight ratings, 8 holds, 1 underweight, and 2 sells. Its average target of $83.66 implies upside of 16.3%.
Both companies are scheduled to host conference calls at 17:00 EDT. Rocket Lab will hold a financial-results update, while ASTS will conduct a quarterly business update with a focus on financial results. Risks remain for both: they are operating at a loss, and launch schedules are subject to change. With shares recently rallying, patience for any setbacks may be limited.
The earnings test is uneven: Rocket Lab must demonstrate margin resilience and Neutron progress, while ASTS needs to show its revenue growth can reach the 2026 objective. Investors will be watching closely.
